🗊Презентация Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near

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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №1Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №2Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №3Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №4Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №5Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №6Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №7Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №8Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №9Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №10Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №11Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №12Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №13Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №14Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №15Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №16Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №17Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №18Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №19Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №20Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №21Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №22Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №23Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №24Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №25Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №26Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №27Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №28Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №29Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №30Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №31Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №32Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №33Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №34Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №35Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №36Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №37Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №38Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №39Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №40Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №41Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №42Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №43Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №44
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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №1
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1988 Testimony: Conclusions 1988 Testimony: Conclusions 1. Earth is warmer in 1988 than at any time in the history of instrumental measurements 2. Global warming is now large enough that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship to the greenhouse effect 3. Greenhouse effect is already large enough to effect the probability of extreme events such as summer heat waves
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1988 Testimony: Conclusions 1988 Testimony: Conclusions 1. Earth is warmer in 1988 than at any time in the history of instrumental measurements 2. Global warming is now large enough that we can ascribe with a high degree of confidence a cause and effect relationship to the greenhouse effect 3. Greenhouse effect is already large enough to effect the probability of extreme events such as summer heat waves

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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №3
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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №4
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Basis of Testimony Basis of Testimony 1988 1. Basic Physics, Planetary & Paleo Studies 2. Observed On-Going Climate Change 3. Climate Models 2008 1. Paleoclimate: History of Earth’s Climate 2. Global Observations of Climate Processes 3. Climate Models
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Basis of Testimony Basis of Testimony 1988 1. Basic Physics, Planetary & Paleo Studies 2. Observed On-Going Climate Change 3. Climate Models 2008 1. Paleoclimate: History of Earth’s Climate 2. Global Observations of Climate Processes 3. Climate Models

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Major Flaws in 1988 Testimony Major Flaws in 1988 Testimony Did Not Emphasize Warming vs Chaos - Weather Variations >> Climate Trend - Small Change of Mean Has Big Effects Did Not Emphasize That Global Warming Enhances Both Extremes of Water Cycle - More Intense Droughts, Heat Waves, Fires - Heavier Rainfall, Greater Floods, Stronger Storms Driven by Latent Heat (Thunder Storms, Tornados, Tropical Storms)
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Major Flaws in 1988 Testimony Major Flaws in 1988 Testimony Did Not Emphasize Warming vs Chaos - Weather Variations >> Climate Trend - Small Change of Mean Has Big Effects Did Not Emphasize That Global Warming Enhances Both Extremes of Water Cycle - More Intense Droughts, Heat Waves, Fires - Heavier Rainfall, Greater Floods, Stronger Storms Driven by Latent Heat (Thunder Storms, Tornados, Tropical Storms)

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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №7
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Global Warming Status Global Warming Status 1. Knowledge Gap Between - What is Understood (science) - What is Known (public) 2. Planetary Emergency - Climate Inertia  Warming in Pipeline - Tipping Points  Could Lose Control 3. Good News & Bad News - Safe Level of CO2 < 350 ppm - Multiple Benefits of Solution
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Global Warming Status Global Warming Status 1. Knowledge Gap Between - What is Understood (science) - What is Known (public) 2. Planetary Emergency - Climate Inertia  Warming in Pipeline - Tipping Points  Could Lose Control 3. Good News & Bad News - Safe Level of CO2 < 350 ppm - Multiple Benefits of Solution

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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №9
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Metrics for “Dangerous” Change Metrics for “Dangerous” Change Extermination of Animal & Plant Species 1. Extinction of Polar and Alpine Species 2. Unsustainable Migration Rates Ice Sheet Disintegration: Global Sea Level 1. Long-Term Change from Paleoclimate Data 2. Ice Sheet Response Time Regional Climate Disruptions 1. Increase of Extreme Events 2. Shifting Zones/Freshwater Shortages
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Metrics for “Dangerous” Change Metrics for “Dangerous” Change Extermination of Animal & Plant Species 1. Extinction of Polar and Alpine Species 2. Unsustainable Migration Rates Ice Sheet Disintegration: Global Sea Level 1. Long-Term Change from Paleoclimate Data 2. Ice Sheet Response Time Regional Climate Disruptions 1. Increase of Extreme Events 2. Shifting Zones/Freshwater Shortages

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Target CO2: Target CO2: < 350 ppm To preserve creation, the planet on which civilization developed
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Target CO2: Target CO2: < 350 ppm To preserve creation, the planet on which civilization developed

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Tipping Point Definitions Tipping Point Definitions 1. Tipping Level - Climate forcing (greenhouse gas amount) reaches a point such that no additional forcing is required for large climate change and impacts 2. Point of No Return - Climate system reaches a point with unstoppable irreversible climate impacts (irreversible on a practical time scale) Example: disintegration of large ice sheet
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Tipping Point Definitions Tipping Point Definitions 1. Tipping Level - Climate forcing (greenhouse gas amount) reaches a point such that no additional forcing is required for large climate change and impacts 2. Point of No Return - Climate system reaches a point with unstoppable irreversible climate impacts (irreversible on a practical time scale) Example: disintegration of large ice sheet

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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №13
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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №14
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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №15
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Arctic Sea Ice Criterion* 1. Restore Planetary Energy Balance  CO2: 385 ppm  325-355 ppm 2. Restore Sea Ice: Aim for -0.5 W/m2 CO2: 385 ppm  300-325 ppm Range based on uncertainty in present planetary energy imbalance (between 0.5 and 1 W/m2) *Assuming near-balance among non-CO2 forcings
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Arctic Sea Ice Criterion* 1. Restore Planetary Energy Balance  CO2: 385 ppm  325-355 ppm 2. Restore Sea Ice: Aim for -0.5 W/m2 CO2: 385 ppm  300-325 ppm Range based on uncertainty in present planetary energy imbalance (between 0.5 and 1 W/m2) *Assuming near-balance among non-CO2 forcings

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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №17
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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №18
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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №19
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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №20
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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №21
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Sea Level Criterion* 1. Prior Interglacial Periods  CO2 <~ 300 ppm 2. Cenozoic Era  CO2 <~ 300 ppm 3. Ice Sheet Observations  CO2 < 385 ppm *Assuming near-balance among non-CO2 forcings
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Sea Level Criterion* 1. Prior Interglacial Periods  CO2 <~ 300 ppm 2. Cenozoic Era  CO2 <~ 300 ppm 3. Ice Sheet Observations  CO2 < 385 ppm *Assuming near-balance among non-CO2 forcings

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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №23
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Rongbuk Glacier
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Rongbuk Glacier

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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №25
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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №26
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Assessment of Target CO2 Assessment of Target CO2 Phenomenon Target CO2 (ppm) 1. Arctic Sea Ice 300-325 2. Ice Sheets/Sea Level 300-350 3. Shifting Climatic Zones 300-350 4. Alpine Water Supplies 300-350 5. Avoid Ocean Acidification 300-350  Initial Target CO2 = 350* ppm *assumes CH4, O3, Black Soot decrease
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Assessment of Target CO2 Assessment of Target CO2 Phenomenon Target CO2 (ppm) 1. Arctic Sea Ice 300-325 2. Ice Sheets/Sea Level 300-350 3. Shifting Climatic Zones 300-350 4. Alpine Water Supplies 300-350 5. Avoid Ocean Acidification 300-350  Initial Target CO2 = 350* ppm *assumes CH4, O3, Black Soot decrease

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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №28
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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №29
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Initial Target CO2: 350 ppm Technically Feasible (but not if business-as-usual continues) Quick Coal Phase-Out Critical (long lifetime of atmospheric CO2) (must halt construction of any new coal plants that do not capture & store CO2)
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Initial Target CO2: 350 ppm Technically Feasible (but not if business-as-usual continues) Quick Coal Phase-Out Critical (long lifetime of atmospheric CO2) (must halt construction of any new coal plants that do not capture & store CO2)

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“Free Will” Alternative 1. Phase Out Coal CO2 Emissions - by 2025/2030 developed/developing countries 2. Rising Carbon Price - discourages unconventional fossil fuels & extraction of every last drop of oil (Arctic, etc.) 3. Soil & Biosphere CO2 Sequestration - improved farming & forestry practices 4. Reduce non-CO2 Forcings - reduce CH4, O3, trace gases, black soot
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“Free Will” Alternative 1. Phase Out Coal CO2 Emissions - by 2025/2030 developed/developing countries 2. Rising Carbon Price - discourages unconventional fossil fuels & extraction of every last drop of oil (Arctic, etc.) 3. Soil & Biosphere CO2 Sequestration - improved farming & forestry practices 4. Reduce non-CO2 Forcings - reduce CH4, O3, trace gases, black soot

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Carbon Tax & 100% Dividend 1. Tax Large & Growing (but get it in place!) - tap efficiency potential & life style choices 2. Entire Tax Returned - equal monthly deposits in bank accounts 3. Limited Government Role - keep hands off money! - eliminate fossil subsidies - let marketplace choose winners - change profit motivation of utilities - watch U.S. modernize & emissions fall!
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Carbon Tax & 100% Dividend 1. Tax Large & Growing (but get it in place!) - tap efficiency potential & life style choices 2. Entire Tax Returned - equal monthly deposits in bank accounts 3. Limited Government Role - keep hands off money! - eliminate fossil subsidies - let marketplace choose winners - change profit motivation of utilities - watch U.S. modernize & emissions fall!

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Key Elements in Transformation Low-Loss Electric Grid Clean Energy by 2020 (West) & 2030 Allows Renewable Energy Ascendancy Carbon Tax and 100% Dividend Tax at First Sale of Coal/Oil/Gas Tax Can Rise & Spur Transformations “100% or Fight! No Alligator-Shoes!”
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Key Elements in Transformation Low-Loss Electric Grid Clean Energy by 2020 (West) & 2030 Allows Renewable Energy Ascendancy Carbon Tax and 100% Dividend Tax at First Sale of Coal/Oil/Gas Tax Can Rise & Spur Transformations “100% or Fight! No Alligator-Shoes!”

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Basic Conflict Fossil Fuel Special Interests vs Young People & Nature (Animals) Fossil Interests: God-given fact that all fossil fuels will be burned (no free will) Young People: Hey! Not so fast! Nice planet you are leaving us!
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Basic Conflict Fossil Fuel Special Interests vs Young People & Nature (Animals) Fossil Interests: God-given fact that all fossil fuels will be burned (no free will) Young People: Hey! Not so fast! Nice planet you are leaving us!

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What are the Odds? Fossil Interests: have influence in capitals world-wide Young People: need to organize, enlist others (parents, e.g.), impact elections Animals: not much help (don’t vote, don’t talk)
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What are the Odds? Fossil Interests: have influence in capitals world-wide Young People: need to organize, enlist others (parents, e.g.), impact elections Animals: not much help (don’t vote, don’t talk)

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The Challenge We can avoid destroying creation! (+cleaner planet, + good jobs!) We have to figure out how to live without fossil fuels someday… Why not now?
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The Challenge We can avoid destroying creation! (+cleaner planet, + good jobs!) We have to figure out how to live without fossil fuels someday… Why not now?

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Web Site www.columbia.edu/~jeh1 includes Global Warming Twenty Years Later: Tipping Points Near (today’s statement) Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?
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Web Site www.columbia.edu/~jeh1 includes Global Warming Twenty Years Later: Tipping Points Near (today’s statement) Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?

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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №38
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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №39
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Cenozoic Era
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Cenozoic Era

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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №41
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Summary: Cenozoic Era Summary: Cenozoic Era 1. Dominant Forcing: Natural ΔCO2 - Rate ~100 ppm/My (0.0001 ppm/year) - Human-made rate today: ~2 ppm/year Humans Overwhelm Slow Geologic Changes 2. Climate Sensitivity High - Antarctic ice forms if CO2 < ~450 ppm - Ice sheet formation reversible Humans Could Produce “A Different Planet”
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Summary: Cenozoic Era Summary: Cenozoic Era 1. Dominant Forcing: Natural ΔCO2 - Rate ~100 ppm/My (0.0001 ppm/year) - Human-made rate today: ~2 ppm/year Humans Overwhelm Slow Geologic Changes 2. Climate Sensitivity High - Antarctic ice forms if CO2 < ~450 ppm - Ice sheet formation reversible Humans Could Produce “A Different Planet”

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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №43
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Global Warming 20 Years Later: Tipping Points Near, слайд №44
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