🗊Презентация Growth theory: the economy in the very long run

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Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №1Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №2Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №3Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №4Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №5Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №6Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №7Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №8Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №9Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №10Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №11Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №12Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №13Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №14Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №15Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №16Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №17Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №18Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №19Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №20Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №21Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №22Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №23Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №24Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №25Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №26Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №27Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №28Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №29Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №30Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №31Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №32Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №33Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №34Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №35Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №36Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №37Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №38Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №39Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №40Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №41Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №42Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №43Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №44Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №45Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №46Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №47Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №48Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №49Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №50Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №51Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №52Growth theory: the economy in the very long run, слайд №53
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Growth Theory: The Economy in the Very Long Run
Описание слайда:
Growth Theory: The Economy in the Very Long Run

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ECONOMIC GROWTH I: ECONOMIC GROWTH I: CAPITAL ACCUMULATION & POPULATION GROWTH
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ECONOMIC GROWTH I: ECONOMIC GROWTH I: CAPITAL ACCUMULATION & POPULATION GROWTH

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8-1 The Accumulation of Capital 8-1 The Accumulation of Capital 8-2 The Golden Rule Level of Capital 8-3 Population Growth
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8-1 The Accumulation of Capital 8-1 The Accumulation of Capital 8-2 The Golden Rule Level of Capital 8-3 Population Growth

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The Solow growth model shows how The Solow growth model shows how saving, population growth, technological progress Level & Growth of output
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The Solow growth model shows how The Solow growth model shows how saving, population growth, technological progress Level & Growth of output

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Income and poverty in the world selected countries, 2010
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Income and poverty in the world selected countries, 2010

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8-1 The Accumulation of Capital The Supply and Demand for Goods Growth in the Capital Stock and the Steady State Approaching the Steady State: A Numerical Example How Saving Affects Growth
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8-1 The Accumulation of Capital The Supply and Demand for Goods Growth in the Capital Stock and the Steady State Approaching the Steady State: A Numerical Example How Saving Affects Growth

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8-1 The Accumulation of Capital y = Y/L is output per worker k = K/L is capital per worker f(k) = F(k, 1) y = f(k) MPK = f(k + 1) − f(k) k is low → the average worker has only a little capital → an extra unit of capital is very useful and → He produces a lot of additional output. k is high → the average worker has a lot of capital already, → so an extra unit increases production only slightly.
Описание слайда:
8-1 The Accumulation of Capital y = Y/L is output per worker k = K/L is capital per worker f(k) = F(k, 1) y = f(k) MPK = f(k + 1) − f(k) k is low → the average worker has only a little capital → an extra unit of capital is very useful and → He produces a lot of additional output. k is high → the average worker has a lot of capital already, → so an extra unit increases production only slightly.

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The Production Function
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The Production Function

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8-1 The Accumulation of Capital The Supply and Demand for Goods Growth in the Capital Stock and the Steady State Approaching the Steady State: A Numerical Example How Saving Affects Growth
Описание слайда:
8-1 The Accumulation of Capital The Supply and Demand for Goods Growth in the Capital Stock and the Steady State Approaching the Steady State: A Numerical Example How Saving Affects Growth

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8-1 The Accumulation of Capital The Supply and Demand for Goods Growth in the Capital Stock and the Steady State Approaching the Steady State: A Numerical Example How Saving Affects Growth
Описание слайда:
8-1 The Accumulation of Capital The Supply and Demand for Goods Growth in the Capital Stock and the Steady State Approaching the Steady State: A Numerical Example How Saving Affects Growth

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8-1 The Accumulation of Capital The Supply and Demand for Goods Growth in the Capital Stock and the Steady State Approaching the Steady State: A Numerical Example How Saving Affects Growth
Описание слайда:
8-1 The Accumulation of Capital The Supply and Demand for Goods Growth in the Capital Stock and the Steady State Approaching the Steady State: A Numerical Example How Saving Affects Growth

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8-1 The Accumulation of Capital The Supply and Demand for Goods Growth in the Capital Stock and the Steady State Approaching the Steady State: A Numerical Example How Saving Affects Growth
Описание слайда:
8-1 The Accumulation of Capital The Supply and Demand for Goods Growth in the Capital Stock and the Steady State Approaching the Steady State: A Numerical Example How Saving Affects Growth

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Output, Consumption, and Investment The saving rate s determines the allocation of output between C & I. For any level of capital k, output is f (k), investment is sf(k), and consumption is f (k) -sf(k).
Описание слайда:
Output, Consumption, and Investment The saving rate s determines the allocation of output between C & I. For any level of capital k, output is f (k), investment is sf(k), and consumption is f (k) -sf(k).

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Depreciation is a constant fraction of the CS wears out every year. Depreciation is therefore proportional to the capital stock.
Описание слайда:
Depreciation is a constant fraction of the CS wears out every year. Depreciation is therefore proportional to the capital stock.

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Capital accumulation The basic idea: Investment increases the capital stock, depreciation reduces it.
Описание слайда:
Capital accumulation The basic idea: Investment increases the capital stock, depreciation reduces it.

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The equation of motion for k The Solow model’s central equation Determines behavior of capital over time… …which, in turn, determines behavior of all of the other endogenous variables because they all depend on k. E.g., income per person: y = f(k) consumption per person: c = (1–s) f(k)
Описание слайда:
The equation of motion for k The Solow model’s central equation Determines behavior of capital over time… …which, in turn, determines behavior of all of the other endogenous variables because they all depend on k. E.g., income per person: y = f(k) consumption per person: c = (1–s) f(k)

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The steady state If investment is just enough to cover depreciation [sf(k) = k ], then capital per worker will remain constant: k = 0. This occurs at one value of k, denoted k*, called the steady state capital stock.
Описание слайда:
The steady state If investment is just enough to cover depreciation [sf(k) = k ], then capital per worker will remain constant: k = 0. This occurs at one value of k, denoted k*, called the steady state capital stock.

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The steady state
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The steady state

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Moving toward the steady state
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Moving toward the steady state

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Moving toward the steady state
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Moving toward the steady state

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Moving toward the steady state
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Moving toward the steady state

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Moving toward the steady state
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Moving toward the steady state

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Moving toward the steady state
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Moving toward the steady state

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Moving toward the steady state
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Moving toward the steady state

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Moving toward the steady state
Описание слайда:
Moving toward the steady state

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Now you try: Draw the Solow model diagram, labeling the steady state k*. On the horizontal axis, pick a value greater than k* for the economy’s initial capital stock. Label it k1. Show what happens to k over time. Does k move toward the steady state or away from it?
Описание слайда:
Now you try: Draw the Solow model diagram, labeling the steady state k*. On the horizontal axis, pick a value greater than k* for the economy’s initial capital stock. Label it k1. Show what happens to k over time. Does k move toward the steady state or away from it?

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A numerical example Production function (aggregate):
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A numerical example Production function (aggregate):

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A numerical example, cont. Assume: s = 0.3 = 0.1 initial value of k = 4.0
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A numerical example, cont. Assume: s = 0.3 = 0.1 initial value of k = 4.0

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Approaching the steady state: A numerical example Year k y c i k k 1 4.000 2.000 1.400 0.600 0.400 0.200 2 4.200 2.049 1.435 0.615 0.420 0.195 3 4.395 2.096 1.467 0.629 0.440 0.189
Описание слайда:
Approaching the steady state: A numerical example Year k y c i k k 1 4.000 2.000 1.400 0.600 0.400 0.200 2 4.200 2.049 1.435 0.615 0.420 0.195 3 4.395 2.096 1.467 0.629 0.440 0.189

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Exercise: Solve for the steady state Continue to assume s = 0.3,  = 0.1, and y = k 1/2
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Exercise: Solve for the steady state Continue to assume s = 0.3,  = 0.1, and y = k 1/2

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Solution to exercise:
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Solution to exercise:

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An increase in the saving rate
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An increase in the saving rate

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Prediction: Higher s  higher k*. And since y = f(k) , higher k*  higher y* . Thus, the Solow model predicts that countries with higher rates of saving and investment will have higher levels of capital and income per worker in the long run.
Описание слайда:
Prediction: Higher s  higher k*. And since y = f(k) , higher k*  higher y* . Thus, the Solow model predicts that countries with higher rates of saving and investment will have higher levels of capital and income per worker in the long run.

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International evidence on investment rates and income per person
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International evidence on investment rates and income per person

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The Golden Rule: Introduction Different values of s lead to different steady states. How do we know which is the “best” steady state? The “best” steady state has the highest possible consumption per person: c* = (1–s) f(k*). An increase in s leads to higher k* and y*, which raises c* reduces consumption’s share of income (1–s), which lowers c*. So, how do we find the s and k* that maximize c*?
Описание слайда:
The Golden Rule: Introduction Different values of s lead to different steady states. How do we know which is the “best” steady state? The “best” steady state has the highest possible consumption per person: c* = (1–s) f(k*). An increase in s leads to higher k* and y*, which raises c* reduces consumption’s share of income (1–s), which lowers c*. So, how do we find the s and k* that maximize c*?

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The Golden Rule capital stock the Golden Rule level of capital, the steady state value of k that maximizes consumption.
Описание слайда:
The Golden Rule capital stock the Golden Rule level of capital, the steady state value of k that maximizes consumption.

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The Golden Rule capital stock
Описание слайда:
The Golden Rule capital stock

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The Golden Rule capital stock c* = f(k*)  k* is biggest where the slope of the production function equals the slope of the depreciation line:
Описание слайда:
The Golden Rule capital stock c* = f(k*)  k* is biggest where the slope of the production function equals the slope of the depreciation line:

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The transition to the Golden Rule steady state The economy does NOT have a tendency to move toward the Golden Rule steady state. Achieving the Golden Rule requires that policymakers adjust s. This adjustment leads to a new steady state with higher consumption. But what happens to consumption during the transition to the Golden Rule?
Описание слайда:
The transition to the Golden Rule steady state The economy does NOT have a tendency to move toward the Golden Rule steady state. Achieving the Golden Rule requires that policymakers adjust s. This adjustment leads to a new steady state with higher consumption. But what happens to consumption during the transition to the Golden Rule?

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Starting with too much capital then increasing c* requires a fall in s. In the transition to the Golden Rule, consumption is higher at all points in time.
Описание слайда:
Starting with too much capital then increasing c* requires a fall in s. In the transition to the Golden Rule, consumption is higher at all points in time.

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Starting with too little capital then increasing c* requires an increase in s. Future generations enjoy higher consumption, but the current one experiences an initial drop in consumption.
Описание слайда:
Starting with too little capital then increasing c* requires an increase in s. Future generations enjoy higher consumption, but the current one experiences an initial drop in consumption.

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Population growth Assume that the population (and labor force) grow at rate n. (n is exogenous.) EX: Suppose L = 1,000 in year 1 and the population is growing at 2% per year (n = 0.02). Then L = n L = 0.02  1,000 = 20, so L = 1,020 in year 2.
Описание слайда:
Population growth Assume that the population (and labor force) grow at rate n. (n is exogenous.) EX: Suppose L = 1,000 in year 1 and the population is growing at 2% per year (n = 0.02). Then L = n L = 0.02  1,000 = 20, so L = 1,020 in year 2.

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Break-even investment ( + n)k = break-even investment, the amount of investment necessary to keep k constant. Break-even investment includes:  k to replace capital as it wears out n k to equip new workers with capital (Otherwise, k would fall as the existing capital stock would be spread more thinly over a larger population of workers.)
Описание слайда:
Break-even investment ( + n)k = break-even investment, the amount of investment necessary to keep k constant. Break-even investment includes:  k to replace capital as it wears out n k to equip new workers with capital (Otherwise, k would fall as the existing capital stock would be spread more thinly over a larger population of workers.)

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The equation of motion for k With population growth, the equation of motion for k is
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The equation of motion for k With population growth, the equation of motion for k is

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The Solow model diagram
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The Solow model diagram

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The impact of population growth
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The impact of population growth

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Prediction: Higher n  lower k*. And since y = f(k) , lower k*  lower y*. Thus, the Solow model predicts that countries with higher population growth rates will have lower levels of capital and income per worker in the long run.
Описание слайда:
Prediction: Higher n  lower k*. And since y = f(k) , lower k*  lower y*. Thus, the Solow model predicts that countries with higher population growth rates will have lower levels of capital and income per worker in the long run.

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International evidence on population growth and income per person
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International evidence on population growth and income per person

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The Golden Rule with population growth
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The Golden Rule with population growth

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Alternative perspectives on population growth The Malthusian Model (1798) Predicts population growth will outstrip the Earth’s ability to produce food, leading to the impoverishment of humanity. Since Malthus, world population has increased sixfold, yet living standards are higher than ever. Malthus omitted the effects of technological progress.
Описание слайда:
Alternative perspectives on population growth The Malthusian Model (1798) Predicts population growth will outstrip the Earth’s ability to produce food, leading to the impoverishment of humanity. Since Malthus, world population has increased sixfold, yet living standards are higher than ever. Malthus omitted the effects of technological progress.

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Alternative perspectives on population growth The Kremerian Model (1993) Posits that population growth contributes to economic growth. More people = more geniuses, scientists & engineers, so faster technological progress. Evidence, from very long historical periods: As world pop. growth rate increased, so did rate of growth in living standards Historically, regions with larger populations have enjoyed faster growth.
Описание слайда:
Alternative perspectives on population growth The Kremerian Model (1993) Posits that population growth contributes to economic growth. More people = more geniuses, scientists & engineers, so faster technological progress. Evidence, from very long historical periods: As world pop. growth rate increased, so did rate of growth in living standards Historically, regions with larger populations have enjoyed faster growth.

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Chapter Summary 1. The Solow growth model shows that, in the long run, a country’s standard of living depends positively on its saving rate negatively on its population growth rate 2. An increase in the saving rate leads to higher output in the long run faster growth temporarily but not faster steady state growth.
Описание слайда:
Chapter Summary 1. The Solow growth model shows that, in the long run, a country’s standard of living depends positively on its saving rate negatively on its population growth rate 2. An increase in the saving rate leads to higher output in the long run faster growth temporarily but not faster steady state growth.

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Chapter Summary 3. If the economy has more capital than the Golden Rule level, then reducing saving will increase consumption at all points in time, making all generations better off. If the economy has less capital than the Golden Rule level, then increasing saving will increase consumption for future generations, but reduce consumption for the present generation.
Описание слайда:
Chapter Summary 3. If the economy has more capital than the Golden Rule level, then reducing saving will increase consumption at all points in time, making all generations better off. If the economy has less capital than the Golden Rule level, then increasing saving will increase consumption for future generations, but reduce consumption for the present generation.

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