🗊Презентация International business management. Course revision

International Business Management Course Revision Dr Michael Wynn-Williams wm82@gre.ac.uk

Course Revision The following topics highlight the prime learning points for the course They are not intended to indicate the contents of the exam paper Where the course revision topics have been extracted from a set of lecture slides you are recommended to familiarise yourself with the original set and do background reading Do not neglect other topics covered during the year

Question 1: compulsory You must do Question 1 For the remaining questions you choose 3 out of 5 Spend no more than 45 minutes on each question – the early points are easier to get than the later ones.

Topic 1: Economic risk analysis for emerging economies

Economic Risk Analysis (ERA) IMF uses quantitative analysis for evaluating economies Economic risk is present in all countries, but most significant in emerging and developing economies Guidelines devised at Greenwich evaluate the security of doing business in the country Emerging and developing countries tend to trade in a narrow range of products and depend on cash flow The three main measures of a country’s financial standing: GDP – how much is it producing? Inflation – how well controlled? Current Account – are the imports affordable? The first part of compulsory Exam Question 1 uses simple IMF-style quantitative formulas to measure economic performance against a standard The second part of the question identifies and evaluates the main economic factors in order to make a qualitative investment decision in the country

Finding the data Most of the data is available from the World Bank The data is for all countries, not just emerging or developing economy clients of The Bank One piece of data, for the current account/GDP, comes from the IMF World Economic Outlook (WEO) In the exam the data will comprise the World Bank figures + CAD/GDP The data sheet will be a Word file The exam will focus on an emerging economy

ERA Exam question Part I: Quantitative data

1. GDP Growth Question: is the economy growing at a sustainable rate? Answer: target 2.0-3.0% developed, 6.0-10.0% emerging and 7.0-11.0% developing economies Gross domestic product (GDP) measures everything produced in the country regardless of nationality Real (constant prices) GDP increases show genuine growth in the economy Positive, steady growth is always good but the gains may be unevenly distributed Undesirable GDP conditions: High growth – rising wages, inflation, imports and interest rates Low growth – poor exploitation of resources, poor competitiveness, low wealth creation Recession – wealth destruction, hysteresis effects

GDP Growth targets Need to find a balance between a booming economy and recession An overheating economy with high inflation is usually treated with high interest rates A recessionary economy with low inflation is usually treated with low interest rates Stagflation (low growth, high inflation) is a challenging paradox! Rate of return should match the risk

GDP Risk and Return for Emerging economies Emerging economies can sustain high rates of growth as unemployed resources are brought into the economy – e.g. migration from countryside to cities

2: inflation

Inflation and Risk/return Most central banks are targeting 2.0% CPI inflation Some central banks will accept overshoots and undershoots for short periods, others (e.g. ECB) will accept only an undershoot On balance, 0.0-2.0% inflation is probably considered low risk World Bank data shows inflation as GDP deflator

3: Current Account Deficit – CAD

Current Account Deficit – CAD

Criticism of the IMF Quantitative approach Many feel that the IMF style of analysis does more harm than good Criticisms: It is a creature of the US and Europe It has a neo-liberal agenda for low government spending, privatisation and debt repayment It treats all countries the same IMF’s defence It is invited by the host government It is the last resort – everything else has failed The worse the taste the better the medicine

Focus points Memorise the targets – could be represented as graphs? Be sure to match the rate of return to the risk level Include a short paragraph [4 points] on why this snapshot, prescribed approach is not suited to all countries all the time. This sets you up for answering Part II which is qualitative.

ERA exam question Part ii: FDI investment decision The second half of Exam Question 1 concerns the best target for foreign direct investment (FDI) by a company In your considered opinion, how attractive is (Country X) as a destination for foreign direct investment (FDI)? Taking a long-term view, you should build up a case for a specific company making an FDI investment. The business case should be a credible argument based on qualitative analysis of the data you consider most relevant to the investment decision. [15 marks] The decision of which sector of the economy to invest in can only be based on the information in the datasheet – no credit will be given for special knowledge! The FDI decision should identify and analyse the most appropriate economic factors

Factors influencing FDI The economic factors that are appropriate to the FDI decision depend upon the nature of the investment – it is therefore an opportunity for creative thinking by entrepreneurs FDI entrepreneurs need to analyse trends in the data to uncover any new opportunities It is also important to identify specific data that indicates new opportunities To help you remember the most important factors, we have a Greenwich mnemonic: GLIFTS

Greenwich mnemonic - GLIFTS

Using GLIFTS

Other interesting data… An entrepreneur will browse data looking for items of interest This is when your creativity reaches its peak! Some data that might catch your eye and deserve further consideration:

sources World Bank <http://databank.worldbank.org/data/views/reports/ReportWidgetCustom.aspx?Report_Name=CountryProfile&Id=b450fd57> IMF (for CAD/GDP) – latest World Economic Outlook report <http://www.imf.org/external/ns/cs.aspx?id=28> Australia CAD/GDP – Mr Wood.com.au <http://economics.mrwood.com.au/statistics/goal/goalcadgdp.asp> US Debt Service – Creditflowinvestor.com <http://www.creditflowinvestor.com/FederalDebtService.htm> IMF paper on MRR – Boorman, J. and S. Ingves (2001), Issues in Reserves Adequacy and Management <http://www.imf.org/external/np/pdr/resad/2001/101501.pdf> Bank of England current account information sheet <http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/publications/speeches/2006/speech271.pdf> IMF guide to financial terminology <http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/eds/Eng/Guide/file6.pdf> UN debt service ratio definition <http://esl.jrc.it/envind/un_meths/UN_ME069.htm>

Focus points Prepare a range of case study companies in advance and think about what they need from the economy Apple – expanding economy, educated workforce, growing access to high technology GSK pharmaceuticals – rising life expectancy, evidence or rising medical spending Starbucks coffee plantation – low education, low urban growth, low industry/services value added Don’t just list your observations, each economic factor should serve your ultimate investment decision

Questions 2-6: Uncompulsory 5 questions, you choose 3 of them Each requires a mini-essay answer: Start with a theory or conceptual framework and criticise it Bring in a case study as a test of the theory/framework in a deductive style Suggest improvements to the theory/framework

Topic 2: risk & uncertainty

Risk Vs Uncertainty Knight (1921)/ Chicago Risk : When probabilities can be identified, eg. playing poker, roulette. Degree of aversion to risk largely irrelevant. Uncertainty : when probabilities are too miniscule, population of events are large and assigning probabilities may not be meaningful. Opportunities for business Risk – objective judgment, can be researched and planned, involves existing markets and/or products Uncertainty – subjective judgment to convert uncertainty to risk, requires entrepreneurs who can forge new directions, involves new markets and/or products

Types of Uncertainty Level 1 : past predictive, trend analysis Predicting the demand for pizzas during tomorrow’s football match Level 2 : discrete (binary) futures Predicting outcome of elections next year – “if this then that” Level 3 : multiple futures Predicting technological change in TV – 3D, 4K, internet Level 4 : true ambiguity Predicting future of multi media – Google Glass, Apple Watch

Uncertainty types compared…

Risk and planning Hope of success >>>> Assured Failure Assured Success No Risk No Risk 100/0 50/50 0/100 Desperate/ Gamblers’ Risk Managed Risk <<<< Fear of Failure

The Risk/uncertainty Calculus Scale of potential harm War vs local fire Likelihood of occurrence Earthquake vs industrial dispute Capability to respond Crisis management Effective deployment of capability Risk taking vs Risk averse

Risk, Uncertainty and reward Risk is the strategist’s best friend The degree of risk is compensated for by the size of the reward Where information is equally available risk calculations should be the same by all parties – no opportunity for arbitrage Uncertainty is the entrepreneur’s secret weapon The entrepreneur seeks new and exclusive information The entrepreneur calculates a new, lower risk factor but benefits from the high returns calculated by others

risk analysis steps Step I : Sorting Environmental Data Performance : GDP, Inflation, BoP etc Strategy: National Goals, Policies, etc Context: Institutional and Ideological basis Step II : Relating the data Determining Uncertainty Type Past Predictive, Discrete Options, Multiple Options, True Ambiguity : Courtney’s Model Prediction & Scenario Generation

Focus points You should be aware that risk is a normal part of the business environment Risk requires meticulous analysis so that it is fully understood and the appropriate rate of return obtained Uncertainty does not yield the same assurances Competitive advantage comes from lowering company-specific risk Consider case studies where companies have invested in low, medium and high risk environments Political risk has a number of angles, principally 3 dimensions: procedural, distributive and catastrophic Consider case study examples for each dimension Consider how you can assess political risk

Topic 3: international trade

Mercantalism Principal: wealth based on holdings of gold The Concept: Trade is a zero sum game: one country gains at the expense of others Drove the economic expansion in the 17th /18th centuries Imperialism was also in line with military power Colonies forced to export commodities and import manufactured products The Limitations: De-industrialisation, brain drain, adverse movement of factors of production from colonies Inefficient production Rising inflation Current usage: neo-mercantilism is politically attractive

Adam Smith and Absolute Advantage Principle: Adam Smith – both nations can gain from trade The concept : countries should specialize in producing those commodities in which they have an absolute advantage The UK has an advantage in producing “scotch”, while France has an advantage in “champagne” Brings specialisation benefits – economies of scale, learning Can derive from natural or acquired advantages Results in absolute efficiency advantage Limitations: some countries have no absolute advantage, natural or acquired Current usage: applicable to some industries, particularly strategic

Comparative Advantage Principle: Ricardo (1817) – even a country with all absolute advantages is comparatively better at some things The concept : two countries specialise in the areas in which they have a comparative advantage (and possibly an absolute disadvantage) Depends on relative efficiency The comparison is within the country Opens trade to developing entrants Limitations: Assumes factors of production are only mobile within countries Current usage: basic theory of trade

Mercantilism and developing economies Mercantilism allows a country to build up industry based on export sales Import restrictions keep out the competition but consumers are worse off FDI substitutes for imports WTO will permit protection of infant industries using mercantilist policies but only until the industry reaches maturity and can compete with global rivals The mercantilist strategy has a time limit – the country must open its borders to international trade and its advantages once the country has established its own comparative advantages

Focus points Familiarise yourself with the temptations of mercantilism and how countries think they can gain by using it Make sure you can critically analyse the theory, showing that it fails to capitalise on the gains offered by comparative advantage approaches Prepare a case study of a major developing/emerging economy that has used, or is using, mercantilism in some form to promote economic growth. How long can it last? What should it do next?

Topic 4: Five forces model

Porter’s Perspective Asserted that industry attractiveness is not a function of specific technology or product attributes but of the wider industry structure Strategic positioning is one where the local conditions offer an advantage to the incoming foreign firm Intense overall competition offers little for the incoming firm Some competitive forces may be quite limited – there are compensations in strengths elsewhere

The 5 forces model

The bargaining power of buyers The extent to which the buyer can influence the prices Can happen when… Buyer group is large Product is perishable Low switching costs between suppliers Threat of backward integration – they can manufacture the product themselves Highly sensitive to price movements

power of suppliers The extent to which the suppliers can influence the cost of production in the value chain Can happen when… There is a credible threat of backward integration There are monopsonistic tendencies in the market The product is differentiated and there are high switching costs involved The product is undifferentiated but available to other industries

Threat of new entrants The threat from the market getting flooded with new players Can happen when… There low barriers to entry in the market When capital requirements are not very high Exit costs are low, and there are no specialized assets created Low economies of scale

Threat of substitutes The ability to use another product for similar use Can happen when… Different product can be used for the same purpose eg. email for mail Technology changes product definition, ie credit cards as smart cards Low switching costs

Extent of inter-firm competition An increase in the number of firms will increase competitive rivalry… will affect price, costs and volumes Can happen when Industry growth is slow Rivals are all similar size There are high fixed/storage costs Capacity augmented in large increments due to high economies of scale Exit barriers are high Competition is based around price – similar products,

Factors not Forces The competitive forces impact on profitability – some items are factors but do not in themselves impact on profitability High industry growth rate – suppliers may gain in power, there may be low entry barriers Technology – new advances are not attractive in themselves, established industries may be more attractive Government – Porter did not see this as a force since its impact depends on the policy details Complementary products – accompanying technology eg. fuel networks for vehicle The model is only a snapshot, the forces may shift in strength

Andrew Grove: six forces model Model adds role of complementors to the Five Forces model Complementors are external powers that balance the forces within the industry Complementors include: Government – eg. legislation that is inequitable Pressure groups – eg. environmental lobby Porter would characterise these as factors

Focus points Consider case studies that don’t just illustrate how the model works but reveal additional insights into its weaknesses Some factors seem clear but it can be quite difficult to state what they mean in reality e.g. what’s the difference between new entrants and substitutes? There are other market influences that Porter claims are not forces because they do not impact on profitability. How far do you agree with this?

Topic 5: international Marketing

Kotler: the 4 ps

1. Product – Delivering value Legal requirement Safety – pharmaceuticals Environment – cars Non-tariff barriers Cultural awareness Religious differences – eg. consumption of meat Local customs – cup-holders for Americans Economic factors Local disposable income levels Conditions of use – eg. who will use it and how

New Product Development (npd) Rate of NPD greater in countries where It is an R&D intensive industry Sales volumes are sufficient Consumers can afford the value-added Competition is intense Integrating R&D, production & marketing ensures Project development driven by customer needs New products are designed for ease of manufacture Development costs are kept in alignment with demand Time to market is minimized Pressure to standardise as much as possible

2: Price – International issues Government controls Minimum and maximum prices Prohibition against dumping Taxation Market diversity – national differences Skimming – high price for short-term profit Penetration – low pricing for market share Cost-plus – calculated margin for long-term plan Price escalation in export Cost-plus % calculation can rise exponentially with cost Tariffs Analysis to select appropriate end price Exchange rate fluctuation Fixed and variable pricing

Pricing risk Inflation A “paper profit” may be pumped up by inflation on inventory Tax is based on the paper profit Costs of frequent price changes Exchange rate Transaction risk – the revenue received reduces if customer changes the terms of the deal Translation risk – reported revenues are undermined by currency changes Fluctuation – may have to take a long-term view Arbitrage – grey imports Customers may exploit price differences if transport costs have not be properly taken into account

3: Promotion Push strategy Emphasizes personal selling within the distribution chain Requires intense use of a sales force Suits low fixed cost, but high variable cost products Pull strategy Relies on mass media advertising to end buyer Suits high fixed cost, but low variable cost products Determining factors Product type and consumer sophistication Production system – pressure of economies of scale Distribution system Media availability

4: Place Different distribution systems due to Country-specific differences Consumer spending habits Retail concentration Choosing the best distribution system Financial strength of wholesaler or retailer Distributor’s knowledge and capability The number and types of product lines Retail format – large stores or local shops Choices for establishing the network Local agent for entry period Regional before national Global system or local

3 More PS Service industries have intangible aspects that need marketing Kotler felt 4 was enough In addition to the tangible 4Ps: People Staff skills, CRM, customer service Process Ease of contact, customer oriented logistics Physical Evidence Making the intangible tangible eg. free trials, showroom design, branding

Focus points You need to do more than illustrate how the 4Ps work, you need to critically analyse This leads directly into the additional Ps, and perhaps also other mnemonics Kotler thought the 4Ps were sufficient, but then he would… Consider a case study that not only shows all the Ps in action but also provides further critical insights and recommendations

Topic 6: Strategic alliances

Strategic Alliances types

1: Joint Venture Definition The term “joint venture” tends to describe the purpose of the alliance rather than the structure The JV could be a company or a partnership A JV is a separate operation from its partners The partners own equal shares Both partners have to agree to terminate Specific advantages Both partners are tied in Specific disadvantages Restrictive Example Toyota-GM NUUMI plant in California

2: Equity strategic alliance Definition Partner firms take different sized shares Often used for a new strategy (eg. new technology) Specific advantages Can help to achieve economies of scale Can bring a technology to market more quickly Exploits a shorter product life cycle Specific disadvantages Opportunism of one partner exploiting a new technology One partner dominates Example Automotive Fuel Cell Cooperation – Ballard 20%, Ford 30% and Daimler 50%

3: Non-Equity strategic alliance Definition Partner firms share no ownership interest No separate firm is created Secured by simple contracts Specific advantages Less knowledge is exchanged, so reduced risk Specific disadvantages Not suited to complex relationships (eg. technology development) Example Asahi Super Dry (beer) is brewed in the UK by Shepherd Neame for the local market

4: Global strategic alliance Definition Partner firms share no ownership interest No separate firm is created Secured by simple contracts Specific advantages Expands global market exposure Avoids obstacles to full mergers Specific disadvantages Companies are dependent on each other to uphold reputations Example Oneworld Alliance – British Airways, Cathay Pacific, American Airways etc.

Focus points Make sure you can clearly distinguish one type of alliance from another You need to be able to critically analyse them, not simply describe them Prepare case studies for each type and be ready to use one in significant detail The case study should be critical, revealing weaknesses in the neatness of the theory. Indeed, the case study may even straddle more than one kind of alliance.