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Слайды и текст этой презентации

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The relationship between real GDP and Real Primary Exports

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Context Motivation behind the country selection Country profile GDP and Export relationship Methodology Results Conclusion

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Reason of choice 3rd largest economy in the world Japanese cultural philosophy in their economy Small agricultural area – High yield Worldwide known mastery of manufacturing Infrastructure investments

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Country profile

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GDP Growth

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GDP composition

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Real Export

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Export Structure

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Exports (% of GDP)

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GDP and export relationship No foreign constraints Improved technology Increased productivity Economies of scale More production  more export

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Methodology Unit root test Co – integration test Vector Autoregressive model

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Unit root test H0: γ = 0 (Non-stationary) HA: γ < 0 (Stationary) Non-stationary at level, but stationary at first difference

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Co - integration test H0: non-stationary residuals (no co-integration exists) HA: the residuals are stationary (co-integration exists) -7.3375 < -3.67 , therefore, we can reject the null The GDP and Exports are co-integrated

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VAR model DX(-1) and DY(-1) are not significant No short-run effect from exports to GDP No short-run effect from GDP to exports

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Conclusion Decline in Real GDP and Real Exports Unit root test – series are non-stationary Co-integration test – real GDP and real Export are co-integrated VAR model – there is no short term relationship of GDP and Export

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References Hill, C. E., Griffiths, W. E. & Lim, G. C., 2008. Principles of econometrics. 3d ed. Danvers: John Wiley & Sons Inc.. Mucahit, A. & Murat, S., 2014. RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN GDP AND EXPORT IN TURKEY. [Online] Available at: [Accessed 16 February 2017]. The World Bank, n.d. DataBank. World Development Indicators. [Online] Available at: [Accessed 15 February 2017]. World Trade Organisation, n.d. Merchandise trade by commodity. [Online] Available at: [Accessed 15 February 2017]. Zang, W. & Baimbridge, M., 2012. Exports, imports and economic growth in South Korea and Japan: a tale of two economies, Nottingham: Applied Economics.