🗊Презентация Management Decision Support and Intelligent Systems

Objectives Describe the concepts of managerial, decision making, and computerized support for decision making. Justify the role of modeling and models in decision making. Describe decision support systems (DSSs) and their benefits, and describe the DSS structure. Describe the support to group (including virtual) decision making. Describe organizational DSS and executive support systems, and analyze their role in management support. Describe artificial intelligence (AI) and list its benefits and characteristics. Define an expert system and its components and describe its benefits and limitations. Describe natural language processing and compare it to speech understanding. Describe Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), their characteristics and major applications. Compare it to fuzzy logic and describe its role in hybrid intelligent systems. Describe the relationships between the Web, DSS, and intelligent system. Describe special decision support applications including the support of frontline employees.

 Management A manager's role can be categorized into: Interpersonal - figurehead, leader, liaison Informational - monitor, disseminator, spokesperson Decisional - entrepreneur, problem solver, resource coordinator, and negotiator

 Managers and Decision Making Why Managers Need the Support of Information Technology.  It is very difficult to make good decisions without valid, timely and relevant information. Number of alternatives to be considered is increasing Many decisions are made under time pressure. Due to uncertainty in the decision environment, it is frequently necessary to conduct a sophisticated analysis. It is often necessary to rapidly access remote information.

Management Support Systems Decision Support Systems (DSS) provide support primarily to analytical, quantitative types of decisions. Executive (Enterprise) Support Systems (ESS) support the informational roles of executives. Group Decision Support Systems supports managers and staff working in groups. Intelligent Systems

Decision Process

Models – aiding decision making The benefits of modeling in decision making are: The cost of virtual experimentation is much lower than the cost of experimentation with a real system. Models allow for the simulated compression of time. Manipulating the model is much easier than manipulating the real system. The cost of mistakes are much lower in virtual experimentation. Modeling allows a manager to better deal with the uncertainty by introducing “what-ifs” and calculating the risks involved in specific actions. Mathematical models allow the analysis and comparison of a very large number of possible alternative solutions. Models enhance and reinforce learning and support training.

Models – Classifications An Iconic or Scale model is a physical replica of a system. An Analog model does not look like the real system but behaves like it. A Mathematical (Quantitative) model describes the system with the aid of mathematics and is composed of three types of variables (decision, uncontrollable and result) A Mental models provides a subjective description of how a person thinks about a situation. The model includes beliefs, assumptions, relationships and flows of work as perceived by that individual.

Decision Complexity

Decision Support Systems

Decision Support Systems - Components A DSS data management subsystem contains all the data that flow from several sources, and are extracted prior to their entry into a DSS database or a data warehouse. A model management subsystem contains completed models (financial, statistical, management science, or other quantitative models), and the routines to develop DSSs applications. The user interface covers all aspects of the communications between a user and the DSS. The Users.  The person (manager, or the decision maker) faced with the problem or decision that the DSS is designed to support A knowledge-based or intelligent subsystem provides the expertise for solving some aspects of the problem, or the knowledge that can enhance the operation of the other DSS components.

DSS Process

Group Decision Support Systems Groups One-room group whose members are in one place Virtual group, whose members are in different locations

Organizational Decision Support System Major characteristics of an ODSS are: It affects several organizational units or corporate problems It cuts across organizational functions or hierarchical layers It involves computer-based technologies and communication technologies. It often interacts or integrates with enterprise-wide information systems.

Executive Information (Support) Systems EIS are: Very user friendly Is supported by graphics Provides the capabilities of exception reporting (reporting only the results that deviate from a set standard) Provide drill down (investigating information in increasing detail). ESS goes beyond EIS to include: Analyse support Communications Office automation Intelligence support

ESS - Expansion continued ESS can be enhanced with: Multidimensional analysis and presentation Friendly data access User-friendly graphical interface Imaging capabilities Intranet access E-mail Internet access Modeling ESS goes beyond EIS to include: Analyse support Communications Office automation Intelligence support

Intelligent Support Systems (ISS) AI applications can be extremely valuable: They can make computers easier to use. They make knowledge more widely available. They significantly increase the speed and consistency of some problem-solving procedures. They handle problems that are difficult to solve by conventional computing and those that have incomplete or unclear data. They increase the productivity of performing many tasks. They helps in handling information overload by summarizing or interpreting information. They assist in searching through large amounts of data.

ISS - Artificial Intelligence

Expert Systems (ES) – One type of ISS

Expert Systems (ES) – One type of ISS

Simulation Systems

Other Intelligent Systems

Web-Based Management Support Systems

MANAGERIAL ISSUES

MANAGERIAL ISSUES Continued