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Слайды и текст этой презентации

Слайд 1

Описание слайда:

Russia Economic Report November 2007

Слайд 2

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Main Messages Robust growth supported by high energy prices, large capital inflows, rising domestic demand and prudent macroeconomic management Short-term challenges: Control inflation Limit rapid real exchange rate appreciation Manage large capital flows Maintain prudent fiscal policy Medium-term challenges: Sustain productivity growth Close the infrastructure gap Boost private investment Promote economic diversification

Слайд 3

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I. Recent Economic Developments I. Recent Economic Developments

Слайд 4

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Rapid Output Growth Driven by Booming Domestic Demand

Слайд 5

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Non-Tradable Sectors Continued to Boom

Слайд 6

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Manufacturing Growth: Strong But Tapering Off

Слайд 7

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The downward trend in manufacturing might be associated with the erosion in competitiveness in non-fuel, non-metal tradable sectors Parts of manufacturing that service domestic demand with limited competition from imports may continue to thrive in Russia’s booming domestic market But the real appreciation of the ruble, without commensurate increases in productivity, drives up unit labor costs, hindering competitiveness in tradable sectors (outside resources and metals)

Слайд 8

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Russia continues to experience an investment boom

Слайд 9

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Despite Investment Boom, Domestic and Foreign Investments Went to A Few Sectors

Слайд 10

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Inflation is Rising, Driven by Food Prices and Monetary Factors

Слайд 11

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Food prices increased, but prices of non-tradable goods and services also increased…

Слайд 12

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Keeping inflation in check is becoming increasingly difficult with large capital inflows

Слайд 13

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BoP continued recording surpluses: weaker C/A was more than offset by stronger Capital Account

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Fiscal surpluses continue, but recently fiscal policy has become more accommodative

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Prospects Growth is likely to remain robust. With energy prices set to remain high, booming domestic demand will continue to translate into strong growth in services and manufacturing However, growth might slowdown if medium-term challenges are not addressed…. Sustain Productivity Growth (which can also help alleviating pressures from the real appreciation of the exchange rate) Promote Economic Diversification Boost Private Investment

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II. Productivity Growth in Russia

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Russia has experienced a productivity surge, propelling economic growth

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What are the drivers of the productivity surge? Capacity utilization Sectoral shifts Firm dynamics

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Higher capacity utilization explains part of the productivity surge

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The productivity surge is also explained by major sectoral shifts in the economy

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Firm dynamics Decomposing total productivity growth into three components: ‘within’: accounts for productivity growth within existing firms ‘reallocation’: reallocation of labor across existing firms ‘net entry’: entry of new firms and exit of obsolete firms

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Productivity growth came mostly from efficiency gains within firms -but reallocation & net entry also mattered

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Firm turnover plays a smaller role than in other advanced economies

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Challenges Ahead In spite of the productivity surge, Russia’s income per capita remains low (at 28 percent of EU-15 average) Rapid productivity gains were ‘easy’ to achieve in the first years of the growth rebound But now with the economy growing close to potential, sustaining productivity gains will be more difficult. Capital and labor accumulation must play a greater role Economic diversification including higher export sophistication also needs to be promoted…

Слайд 25

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Sustaining Productivity Growth Calls For Policy Reforms that Accelerate Reallocation of Resources towards More Efficient Uses

Слайд 26

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III. From Red to Gray: The Third Transition of Aging Population in Russia

Слайд 27

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Shrinking and Rapid Aging Population

Слайд 28

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Aging is not a stop sign for growth: Message 1) Address labor shortage through reforms to boost productivity Message 2) Address fiscal risks associated with aging (pension, health & long care) Russia, Growth decomposition, 1998-2005