🗊Презентация Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates

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Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №1Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №2Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №3Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №4Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №5Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №6Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №7Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №8Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №9Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №10Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №11Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №12Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №13Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №14Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №15Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №16Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №17Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №18Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №19Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №20Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №21Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №22Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №23Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №24Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №25Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates, слайд №26
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Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates Sergey Anokhin Marvin Troutt Joakim Wincent
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Technological Arbitrage Opportunities and Interindustry Differences in Startup Rates Sergey Anokhin Marvin Troutt Joakim Wincent

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Entrepreneurship across industries Entrepreneurial dynamics differs greatly between industries (Eckhardt, 2002) Historical explanation: appropriability regimes differ (Levin et al., 1987) Yet by itself appropriability does not explain much: you have to have some rents to appropriate. Hence, opportunities to create rents are the key
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Entrepreneurship across industries Entrepreneurial dynamics differs greatly between industries (Eckhardt, 2002) Historical explanation: appropriability regimes differ (Levin et al., 1987) Yet by itself appropriability does not explain much: you have to have some rents to appropriate. Hence, opportunities to create rents are the key

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Role of opportunities Entrepreneurship is pursuit of opportunities regardless of resources one controls (Stevenson & Jarillo, 1990) Entrepreneurial rents are typically associated with innovation and technological change Technological opportunities are distributed unevenly across industries (Klevorick et al., 1995) and thus may explain differences in entrepreneurial dynamics across industries
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Role of opportunities Entrepreneurship is pursuit of opportunities regardless of resources one controls (Stevenson & Jarillo, 1990) Entrepreneurial rents are typically associated with innovation and technological change Technological opportunities are distributed unevenly across industries (Klevorick et al., 1995) and thus may explain differences in entrepreneurial dynamics across industries

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Understanding entrepreneurial opportunities Some sort of ‘newness’ is a must Schumpeterian newness: new to the world combinations a.k.a. grand innovation This kind of newness dominates entrepreneurship research (Shane, 2002) Kirznerian newness: new to the firm, not to the world a.k.a. petty innovation This kind of newness dominates practice (Anokhin et al., 2010): 71% of Inc 500 startups used ideas/technologies/products they had learned while at a former employer (Bhide, 2000)
Описание слайда:
Understanding entrepreneurial opportunities Some sort of ‘newness’ is a must Schumpeterian newness: new to the world combinations a.k.a. grand innovation This kind of newness dominates entrepreneurship research (Shane, 2002) Kirznerian newness: new to the firm, not to the world a.k.a. petty innovation This kind of newness dominates practice (Anokhin et al., 2010): 71% of Inc 500 startups used ideas/technologies/products they had learned while at a former employer (Bhide, 2000)

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Arbitrage opportunities Arbitrage as “free lunch” Recognizing shown-to-exist but not yet widespread combinations of resources that allow to buy low, recombine, and sell high with certainty (Kirzner, 1997) Ends and means are ‘given’ so firms can optimize (Eckhardt & Shane, 2003) ‘Trivial’ opportunities (Alvarez & Barney, 2004)
Описание слайда:
Arbitrage opportunities Arbitrage as “free lunch” Recognizing shown-to-exist but not yet widespread combinations of resources that allow to buy low, recombine, and sell high with certainty (Kirzner, 1997) Ends and means are ‘given’ so firms can optimize (Eckhardt & Shane, 2003) ‘Trivial’ opportunities (Alvarez & Barney, 2004)

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Prior experience and recognition of arbitrage opportunities Ability to recognize opportunities is conditioned by the prior experience (Shane, 2000), such that firms look for arbitrage opportunities in their narrow industries CVT transmission example Ability to exploit opportunities is also conditioned by the industry Firms in the same industry are subject to identical external forces and are likely to develop similar resource portfolios to address them
Описание слайда:
Prior experience and recognition of arbitrage opportunities Ability to recognize opportunities is conditioned by the prior experience (Shane, 2000), such that firms look for arbitrage opportunities in their narrow industries CVT transmission example Ability to exploit opportunities is also conditioned by the industry Firms in the same industry are subject to identical external forces and are likely to develop similar resource portfolios to address them

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Narrow industry membership Narrow industry membership allows to identify new-to-the-firm combinations of resources that the firm is able to replicate Thus, arbitrage opportunities indeed become ‘trivial’ optimization under ‘given’ means-ends frameworks Absent further change in the industry, arbitrage opportunities are temporary and finite – but virtually without uncertainty
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Narrow industry membership Narrow industry membership allows to identify new-to-the-firm combinations of resources that the firm is able to replicate Thus, arbitrage opportunities indeed become ‘trivial’ optimization under ‘given’ means-ends frameworks Absent further change in the industry, arbitrage opportunities are temporary and finite – but virtually without uncertainty

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Arbitrage opportunities and entrepreneurial dynamics Innovation is risky (Thomas Edison example) Innovation is costly Innovation is uncertain (market may not accept it even if technology works) Arbitrage: none of the above. All one needs to do is initiate the process of purposeful knowledge spillover (Acs et al., 2009) (CVT; diet soda examples – Schnaars, 1994) H1: There is a positive relationship between arbitrage opportunities and startup rates in the industry
Описание слайда:
Arbitrage opportunities and entrepreneurial dynamics Innovation is risky (Thomas Edison example) Innovation is costly Innovation is uncertain (market may not accept it even if technology works) Arbitrage: none of the above. All one needs to do is initiate the process of purposeful knowledge spillover (Acs et al., 2009) (CVT; diet soda examples – Schnaars, 1994) H1: There is a positive relationship between arbitrage opportunities and startup rates in the industry

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Appropriability regime unpacked Because arbitrageurs replicate someone else’s know how, there are unique risks in the arbitrage opportunities pursuit: Effectiveness of patent protection (as opposed to the ease of ‘inventing around’) Effectiveness of product secrecy (vis-à-vis ‘deciphering’ the know how by imitators) Effectiveness of lead time
Описание слайда:
Appropriability regime unpacked Because arbitrageurs replicate someone else’s know how, there are unique risks in the arbitrage opportunities pursuit: Effectiveness of patent protection (as opposed to the ease of ‘inventing around’) Effectiveness of product secrecy (vis-à-vis ‘deciphering’ the know how by imitators) Effectiveness of lead time

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Effectiveness of patent protection Innovators are required to disclose the vital information in exchange for protection Some industries (e.g., pharmaceuticals) are effectively shielded from imitation: ‘inventing around’ is not an option (FDA clearance) Any attempt at replicating is likely to be met with a lawsuit H2: Effectiveness of patents as a means to ward off imitation negatively moderates the relationship between arbitrage opportunities and startup rates in the industry
Описание слайда:
Effectiveness of patent protection Innovators are required to disclose the vital information in exchange for protection Some industries (e.g., pharmaceuticals) are effectively shielded from imitation: ‘inventing around’ is not an option (FDA clearance) Any attempt at replicating is likely to be met with a lawsuit H2: Effectiveness of patents as a means to ward off imitation negatively moderates the relationship between arbitrage opportunities and startup rates in the industry

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Effectiveness of secrecy Exploitation of technological arbitrage opportunities is contingent on the ability of the arbitrageur to decipher and replicate the more effective resource combinations (Acs et al., 2009) Would-be imitators risk not being able to replicate the new resource combination (examples: Coke, KFC secret seasoning) New entrants thus are reduced to pursuing generic (i.e., average) resource combinations H3: Effectiveness of secrets as a means to ward off imitation negatively moderates the relationship between arbitrage opportunities and startup rates in the industry
Описание слайда:
Effectiveness of secrecy Exploitation of technological arbitrage opportunities is contingent on the ability of the arbitrageur to decipher and replicate the more effective resource combinations (Acs et al., 2009) Would-be imitators risk not being able to replicate the new resource combination (examples: Coke, KFC secret seasoning) New entrants thus are reduced to pursuing generic (i.e., average) resource combinations H3: Effectiveness of secrets as a means to ward off imitation negatively moderates the relationship between arbitrage opportunities and startup rates in the industry

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Effectiveness of lead time When lead time gives innovators substantial advantage, resource owners may re-price the resources to reflect the new means-ends framework before imitators are able to replicate it. Competitive advantage accorded to the arbitrageur by the more effective way to combine resources will not last long enough to justify imitative entry H4: Effectiveness of lead time as a means to ward off imitation negatively moderates the relationship between arbitrage opportunities and startup rates in the industry
Описание слайда:
Effectiveness of lead time When lead time gives innovators substantial advantage, resource owners may re-price the resources to reflect the new means-ends framework before imitators are able to replicate it. Competitive advantage accorded to the arbitrageur by the more effective way to combine resources will not last long enough to justify imitative entry H4: Effectiveness of lead time as a means to ward off imitation negatively moderates the relationship between arbitrage opportunities and startup rates in the industry

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Data Compustat data on 26 industries over 1999-2003 10,650 firm-year observations Labor and capital as inputs; Sales as output (Fare et al., 1998) Two-step procedure: Intertemporal frontier calculation to determine representative slope Arbitrage opportunities calculation for each industry-year given the common industry slope
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Data Compustat data on 26 industries over 1999-2003 10,650 firm-year observations Labor and capital as inputs; Sales as output (Fare et al., 1998) Two-step procedure: Intertemporal frontier calculation to determine representative slope Arbitrage opportunities calculation for each industry-year given the common industry slope

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Data (continued) U.S. Census Bureau – information on the number of firms by industries (by NAICS codes) from 1998 to 2005 to test different time lags NBER data on the appropriability regimes (Cohen, Nelson, & Walsh, 2000)
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Data (continued) U.S. Census Bureau – information on the number of firms by industries (by NAICS codes) from 1998 to 2005 to test different time lags NBER data on the appropriability regimes (Cohen, Nelson, & Walsh, 2000)

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Variables (DV, IV, moderators) Net startup rates: ratio of the difference in the stock of active businesses in time t and (t-1) to the stock of active businesses in (t-1) Arbitrage opportunities: average firm distance from the production frontier in the industry (i.e., it is arbitrage opportunities available to a typical industry firm) Appropriability regime dimensions (patents, secrecy, lead time) are based on the percentage of innovation for which the respective mechanisms are deemed effective by the firm R&D and intellectual property specialists (survey-based estimate)
Описание слайда:
Variables (DV, IV, moderators) Net startup rates: ratio of the difference in the stock of active businesses in time t and (t-1) to the stock of active businesses in (t-1) Arbitrage opportunities: average firm distance from the production frontier in the industry (i.e., it is arbitrage opportunities available to a typical industry firm) Appropriability regime dimensions (patents, secrecy, lead time) are based on the percentage of innovation for which the respective mechanisms are deemed effective by the firm R&D and intellectual property specialists (survey-based estimate)

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Control variables Innovative opportunities (average R&D intensity of the industry firms) (Malerba & Orsenigo, 1997; Dosi et al., 2006) Industry concentration ratio (share of the market controlled by the four largest firms) Year dummies
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Control variables Innovative opportunities (average R&D intensity of the industry firms) (Malerba & Orsenigo, 1997; Dosi et al., 2006) Industry concentration ratio (share of the market controlled by the four largest firms) Year dummies

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Models and estimations Model 1: control variables Model 2: direct effects Model 3: interactions Estimation: Random effects, corrected for the first-order autoregression in the disturbance term (Baltagi & Wu, 1999)
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Models and estimations Model 1: control variables Model 2: direct effects Model 3: interactions Estimation: Random effects, corrected for the first-order autoregression in the disturbance term (Baltagi & Wu, 1999)

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Arbitrage opportunities across industries
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Arbitrage opportunities across industries

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Results
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Results

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Arbitrage opportunities, effectiveness of patents, and startup rates
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Arbitrage opportunities, effectiveness of patents, and startup rates

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Arbitrage opportunities, effectiveness of secrecy, and startup rates
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Arbitrage opportunities, effectiveness of secrecy, and startup rates

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Arbitrage opportunities, effectiveness of lead time, and startup rates
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Arbitrage opportunities, effectiveness of lead time, and startup rates

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Validation Similar results were obtained when using alternative sources of information on entrepreneurship: Share of self-employed (Audretsch et al., 2009) Number of non-employers (U.S. Census Bureau)
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Validation Similar results were obtained when using alternative sources of information on entrepreneurship: Share of self-employed (Audretsch et al., 2009) Number of non-employers (U.S. Census Bureau)

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Discussion Arbitrage opportunities vary a great deal across industries Arbitrage opportunities explain startup rates across industries above and beyond innovative opportunities Arbitrage opportunities explain over 30% of variance in industry startup rates Once arbitrage opportunities enter the picture, innovative opportunities lose their significance
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Discussion Arbitrage opportunities vary a great deal across industries Arbitrage opportunities explain startup rates across industries above and beyond innovative opportunities Arbitrage opportunities explain over 30% of variance in industry startup rates Once arbitrage opportunities enter the picture, innovative opportunities lose their significance

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Questions?
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Questions?

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Thank you!
Описание слайда:
Thank you!

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