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The China Model and Its Implications Zhang Weiwei (China Institute, Fudan University)

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China’s Rise （1978-2017） Annual GDP growth rate: 9 % Annual trade growth rate: 15% Total GDP: US$ 13.1 trillion (2017) Total GDP (ppp): US$ 17.6 trillion (2014) Total trade volume: US$ 4.43 trillion (2017) Poverty reduction: 783 million (2017) Middle class: 400 million (2017) Foreign ex. reserves: US$ 3.13 trillion (2017) Outbound tourists: 130 million visits(2017) On the right track? 90% yes (Ipsos 2016)

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4 Industrial Revolutions in 4 Decades The First revolution: 1978 – 1995 Textiles etc. (township industries) Coastal Development Strategy (1988) The Second revolution: 1992 – 2010 - Power and other industries - WTO (2001) The Third revolution: 1994 – - Telecommunications etc. (2G,3G,4G) The Fourth revolution: on-going - big data, AI, quantum communications etc.

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debate with Fukuyama in 2011 The Arab Spring? America’s Political Reform? End of History?

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Double Eleven: China vs US China: Double Eleven: 45 billion US$ Ali：30.8 billion US$ （10 billion US$ in one hour） JD：23 billion US$（1-11 Nov.） US Comparison： 18.6 billion US$ Black Friday: 8 billion US$ Cyber Monday: 6.6 billion US$ Amazon Prime Day: 4 billion US$ Source: Yale Jackson Institute for Global Affairs

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Is your country on right track？ Ipsos MORI (Oct.2016)

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Of the People

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…is now of the 1%, by the 1%, for the 1%

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By the people ? If multiparty and universal suffrage mean government by people, why “elect and regret” all the time? Forms produce substance or substance produces forms. China explores substance first. A paradigm shift: good governance vs bad governance, not democracy vs autocracy

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The Chinese State and the Party China is a civilizational state, and the Communist Party of China is a continuation of China’s long tradition of a unified Confucian ruling entity.

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Legitimacy: People’s livelihood First People’s livelihood first

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Priority of values: East Asia vs. USA （D. Hutchcock’s survey, 1994) East Asia USA 1. Social order Freedom of Speech 2. Harmony Individual rights 3. Acountability Individual freedom 4. Open to new ideas Public debate

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Reflections on Western democracy Three genetic flaws? - Rational human being assumption. - Absolute rights. - Procedures all that important. Three institutional weaknesses: Democracy or mone-talkracy? Weak governance (e.g. Fukuyama: Vetocracy) Indebted economy

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Chinese Socialism: Success and its future

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Is the China model an alternative to the Western model? My answer is both yes and no.

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Why No? China has no messianic tradition, and it does not seek to impose its model on others China has high degree of political independence that few other countries can match China has a long history of strong and neutral state

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Why Yes? The essence of the China model: a country should endeavor to find its own ways and means for development and prosperity in light of its own national conditions. Many of China’s ideas and practices may inspire other countries. The China model may usher in a paradigm shift: From “democracy vs. autocracy” to “good governance vs. bad governance”.