🗊Презентация The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis

Категория: Экономика и Финансы
Нажмите для полного просмотра!
The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №1The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №2The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №3The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №4The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №5The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №6The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №7The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №8The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №9The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №10The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №11The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №12The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №13The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №14The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №15The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №16The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №17The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №18The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №19The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №20The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №21The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №22The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №23The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №24The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №25The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №26The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №27The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №28The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №29The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №30The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №31The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №32The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №33The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №34The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №35The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №36The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №37The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №38The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №39The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №40The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №41The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №42The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №43The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №44
Скачать

Содержание ▲

Вы можете ознакомиться и скачать презентацию на тему The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis. Доклад-сообщение содержит 44 слайдов. Презентации для любого класса можно скачать бесплатно. Если материал и наш сайт презентаций Mypresentation Вам понравились – поделитесь им с друзьями с помощью социальных кнопок и добавьте в закладки в своем браузере.

Слайды и текст этой презентации

Слайд 1


The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №1
Описание слайда:

Слайд 2


The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №2
Описание слайда:

Слайд 3


The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №3
Описание слайда:

Слайд 4


Common Stock Common stock is the principal way that corporations raise equity capital. Stockholders have the right to vote and be the residual claimants of all funds flowing to the firm. Dividends are payments made periodically, usually every quarter, to stockholders.
Описание слайда:
Common Stock Common stock is the principal way that corporations raise equity capital. Stockholders have the right to vote and be the residual claimants of all funds flowing to the firm. Dividends are payments made periodically, usually every quarter, to stockholders.

Слайд 5


Several Kinds of “Value” There are several types of value, of which we are concerned with four: Book Value – The carrying value on the balance sheet of the firm’s equity (Total Assets less Total Liabilities) Tangible Book Value – Book value minus intangible assets (goodwill, patents, etc) Market Value - The price of an asset as determined in a competitive marketplace Intrinsic Value - The present value of the expected future cash flows discounted at the decision maker’s required rate of return
Описание слайда:
Several Kinds of “Value” There are several types of value, of which we are concerned with four: Book Value – The carrying value on the balance sheet of the firm’s equity (Total Assets less Total Liabilities) Tangible Book Value – Book value minus intangible assets (goodwill, patents, etc) Market Value - The price of an asset as determined in a competitive marketplace Intrinsic Value - The present value of the expected future cash flows discounted at the decision maker’s required rate of return

Слайд 6


9.1 Reading Stock Listings The following newspaper stock listing is usually printed as a horizontal string of information The listing is for IBM, which is traded on the New York Stock Exchange
Описание слайда:
9.1 Reading Stock Listings The following newspaper stock listing is usually printed as a horizontal string of information The listing is for IBM, which is traded on the New York Stock Exchange

Слайд 7


Reading Stock Listings
Описание слайда:
Reading Stock Listings

Слайд 8


Reading Stock Listings Hi = 123 1/8: The highest price the stock has traded at over the last 52 weeks Lo = 93 1/8: The lowest price the stock has traded at over the last 52 weeks Stock = IBM: The stock’s name Sym = IBM: The stock’s symbol
Описание слайда:
Reading Stock Listings Hi = 123 1/8: The highest price the stock has traded at over the last 52 weeks Lo = 93 1/8: The lowest price the stock has traded at over the last 52 weeks Stock = IBM: The stock’s name Sym = IBM: The stock’s symbol

Слайд 9


Reading Stock Listings Div = 4.84: The last quarterly dividend multiplied by 4 Yld % = 4.2: Dividend yield; (Annualized dividend ÷ stock price) PE = 16: Price-to-earnings; (Latest price ÷ last 4 actual dividends) Vol 100s = 14591*100; Volume of exchange traded shares
Описание слайда:
Reading Stock Listings Div = 4.84: The last quarterly dividend multiplied by 4 Yld % = 4.2: Dividend yield; (Annualized dividend ÷ stock price) PE = 16: Price-to-earnings; (Latest price ÷ last 4 actual dividends) Vol 100s = 14591*100; Volume of exchange traded shares

Слайд 10


Reading Stock Listings Hi = 115: Highest share price of the day Lo = 113: Lowest share price of the day Close = 114 3/4: Days closing share price Chg = 1 3/8: Change in closing price from previous trading day
Описание слайда:
Reading Stock Listings Hi = 115: Highest share price of the day Lo = 113: Lowest share price of the day Close = 114 3/4: Days closing share price Chg = 1 3/8: Change in closing price from previous trading day

Слайд 11


The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №11
Описание слайда:

Слайд 12


Equation Total Return
Описание слайда:
Equation Total Return

Слайд 13


Rate of Total Return
Описание слайда:
Rate of Total Return

Слайд 14


One-Period Valuation Model
Описание слайда:
One-Period Valuation Model

Слайд 15


Generalized Dividend Valuation Model
Описание слайда:
Generalized Dividend Valuation Model

Слайд 16


Gordon Growth Model
Описание слайда:
Gordon Growth Model

Слайд 17


The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №17
Описание слайда:

Слайд 18


Example 9.1 Stock Prices and Returns
Описание слайда:
Example 9.1 Stock Prices and Returns

Слайд 19


Example 9.1 Stock Prices and Returns
Описание слайда:
Example 9.1 Stock Prices and Returns

Слайд 20


Example Valuing a Firm with Constant Dividend Growth
Описание слайда:
Example Valuing a Firm with Constant Dividend Growth

Слайд 21


Example 9.2 Valuing a Firm with Constant Dividend Growth
Описание слайда:
Example 9.2 Valuing a Firm with Constant Dividend Growth

Слайд 22


Factors Affecting Stock Prices Business cycles Interest rate changes Investor sentiment about Economy, Earnings And markets
Описание слайда:
Factors Affecting Stock Prices Business cycles Interest rate changes Investor sentiment about Economy, Earnings And markets

Слайд 23


interest rate = risk free rate + risk premium, ke = rf + rp then
Описание слайда:
interest rate = risk free rate + risk premium, ke = rf + rp then

Слайд 24


higher risk free rate, lower stock price higher risk free rate, lower stock price higher risk premium, lower stock price higher dividends, higher stock price higher dividend growth, higher stock price
Описание слайда:
higher risk free rate, lower stock price higher risk free rate, lower stock price higher risk premium, lower stock price higher dividends, higher stock price higher dividend growth, higher stock price

Слайд 25


example D = $2, g = 2%, rf = 3%, rp = 5% P= $2/(.03+.05-.02) P = $2/.06 = $33.33
Описание слайда:
example D = $2, g = 2%, rf = 3%, rp = 5% P= $2/(.03+.05-.02) P = $2/.06 = $33.33

Слайд 26


what if risk premium rises to 7%? what if risk premium rises to 7%? P = $2/(.03+.07-.02) = $2/.08 = $12.50 what if risk premium falls to 3%? P = $2/(.03+.03-.02) = $2/.04 = $50 Dividend discount model shows us why stock prices are volatile
Описание слайда:
what if risk premium rises to 7%? what if risk premium rises to 7%? P = $2/(.03+.07-.02) = $2/.08 = $12.50 what if risk premium falls to 3%? P = $2/(.03+.03-.02) = $2/.04 = $50 Dividend discount model shows us why stock prices are volatile

Слайд 27


The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №27
Описание слайда:

Слайд 28


The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №28
Описание слайда:

Слайд 29


Price Earnings Valuation Method (Cont’d) The PE ratio can be used to estimate the value of a firm’s stock. The product of the PE ratio times the expected earnings is the firm’s stock price. (P/E) x E = P
Описание слайда:
Price Earnings Valuation Method (Cont’d) The PE ratio can be used to estimate the value of a firm’s stock. The product of the PE ratio times the expected earnings is the firm’s stock price. (P/E) x E = P

Слайд 30


Stock Analysis Fundamental analysis Quantitative analysis Based on financial statements Qualitative analysis More subjective Examines management skill Technical analysis Examines past performance Of firm and market
Описание слайда:
Stock Analysis Fundamental analysis Quantitative analysis Based on financial statements Qualitative analysis More subjective Examines management skill Technical analysis Examines past performance Of firm and market

Слайд 31


The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №31
Описание слайда:

Слайд 32


The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №32
Описание слайда:

Слайд 33


The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №33
Описание слайда:

Слайд 34


Implications of the Theory of Rational Expectations Even though a rational expectation equals the optimal forecast using all available information, a prediction based on it may not always be perfectly accurate It takes too much effort to make the expectation the best guess possible. Best guess will not be accurate because predictor is unaware of some relevant information.
Описание слайда:
Implications of the Theory of Rational Expectations Even though a rational expectation equals the optimal forecast using all available information, a prediction based on it may not always be perfectly accurate It takes too much effort to make the expectation the best guess possible. Best guess will not be accurate because predictor is unaware of some relevant information.

Слайд 35


Implications If there is a change in the way a variable moves, the way in which expectations of the variable are formed will change as well. The forecast errors of expectations will, on average, be zero and cannot be predicted ahead of time.
Описание слайда:
Implications If there is a change in the way a variable moves, the way in which expectations of the variable are formed will change as well. The forecast errors of expectations will, on average, be zero and cannot be predicted ahead of time.

Слайд 36


Efficient Markets: An Application of Rational Expectations
Описание слайда:
Efficient Markets: An Application of Rational Expectations

Слайд 37


Implications of the EMH for the stock market: Investing in the Stock Market: Recommendations from investment advisors cannot help us outperform the market. A hot tip is probably information already contained in the price of the stock. Stock prices respond to announcements only when the information is new and unexpected. A “buy and hold” strategy is the most sensible strategy for the small investor.
Описание слайда:
Implications of the EMH for the stock market: Investing in the Stock Market: Recommendations from investment advisors cannot help us outperform the market. A hot tip is probably information already contained in the price of the stock. Stock prices respond to announcements only when the information is new and unexpected. A “buy and hold” strategy is the most sensible strategy for the small investor.

Слайд 38


Evidence Against Market Efficiency Small-firm effect January Effect Market Overreaction Excessive Volatility Mean Reversion New information is not always immediately incorporated into stock prices Chaos and fractals
Описание слайда:
Evidence Against Market Efficiency Small-firm effect January Effect Market Overreaction Excessive Volatility Mean Reversion New information is not always immediately incorporated into stock prices Chaos and fractals

Слайд 39


(b)Behavioural Finance. The lack of short selling (causing over-priced stocks) may be explained by loss aversion. The large trading volume may be explained by investor overconfidence. Stock market bubbles may be explained by overconfidence and social contagion.
Описание слайда:
(b)Behavioural Finance. The lack of short selling (causing over-priced stocks) may be explained by loss aversion. The large trading volume may be explained by investor overconfidence. Stock market bubbles may be explained by overconfidence and social contagion.

Слайд 40


The Stock Market, the Theory of Rational Expectations, and the Efficient Markets Hypothesis, слайд №40
Описание слайда:

Слайд 41


Bubbles Bubbles Large gaps between actual asset price and fundamental value Internet stock bubble of late 1990s Housing bubble? Eventually the bubble bursts!
Описание слайда:
Bubbles Bubbles Large gaps between actual asset price and fundamental value Internet stock bubble of late 1990s Housing bubble? Eventually the bubble bursts!

Слайд 42


In the Generalized Dividend Valuation Model equation: “Fundamentals”: “Bubble”:
Описание слайда:
In the Generalized Dividend Valuation Model equation: “Fundamentals”: “Bubble”:

Слайд 43


Implications of efficiency evidence very difficult for average person to beat the market trying to do so generates trading costs the alternative buy-and-hold diversified portfolio indexing
Описание слайда:
Implications of efficiency evidence very difficult for average person to beat the market trying to do so generates trading costs the alternative buy-and-hold diversified portfolio indexing

Слайд 44


conclusion stock market price behavior combines fundamentals investor psychology markets are not perfectly efficient field of behavioral economics, finance On rational Expectations http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/staff/whelanka/topic4.pdf Stocks Valuation http://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php Stock Dividend Model http://thismatter.com/money/stocks/valuation/dividend-discount-model.htm
Описание слайда:
conclusion stock market price behavior combines fundamentals investor psychology markets are not perfectly efficient field of behavioral economics, finance On rational Expectations http://www.tcd.ie/Economics/staff/whelanka/topic4.pdf Stocks Valuation http://www.gurufocus.com/stock-market-valuations.php Stock Dividend Model http://thismatter.com/money/stocks/valuation/dividend-discount-model.htm

Скачать

Похожие презентации
Mypresentation.ru
Загрузить презентацию