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Common Stock Common stock is the principal way that corporations raise equity capital. Stockholders have the right to vote and be the residual claimants of all funds flowing to the firm. Dividends are payments made periodically, usually every quarter, to stockholders.

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Several Kinds of “Value” There are several types of value, of which we are concerned with four: Book Value – The carrying value on the balance sheet of the firm’s equity (Total Assets less Total Liabilities) Tangible Book Value – Book value minus intangible assets (goodwill, patents, etc) Market Value - The price of an asset as determined in a competitive marketplace Intrinsic Value - The present value of the expected future cash flows discounted at the decision maker’s required rate of return

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9.1 Reading Stock Listings The following newspaper stock listing is usually printed as a horizontal string of information The listing is for IBM, which is traded on the New York Stock Exchange

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Reading Stock Listings

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Reading Stock Listings Hi = 123 1/8: The highest price the stock has traded at over the last 52 weeks Lo = 93 1/8: The lowest price the stock has traded at over the last 52 weeks Stock = IBM: The stock’s name Sym = IBM: The stock’s symbol

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Reading Stock Listings Div = 4.84: The last quarterly dividend multiplied by 4 Yld % = 4.2: Dividend yield; (Annualized dividend ÷ stock price) PE = 16: Price-to-earnings; (Latest price ÷ last 4 actual dividends) Vol 100s = 14591*100; Volume of exchange traded shares

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Reading Stock Listings Hi = 115: Highest share price of the day Lo = 113: Lowest share price of the day Close = 114 3/4: Days closing share price Chg = 1 3/8: Change in closing price from previous trading day

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Equation Total Return

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Rate of Total Return

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One-Period Valuation Model

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Generalized Dividend Valuation Model

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Gordon Growth Model

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Example 9.1 Stock Prices and Returns

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Example 9.1 Stock Prices and Returns

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Example Valuing a Firm with Constant Dividend Growth

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Example 9.2 Valuing a Firm with Constant Dividend Growth

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Factors Affecting Stock Prices Business cycles Interest rate changes Investor sentiment about Economy, Earnings And markets

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interest rate = risk free rate + risk premium, ke = rf + rp then

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higher risk free rate, lower stock price higher risk free rate, lower stock price higher risk premium, lower stock price higher dividends, higher stock price higher dividend growth, higher stock price

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example D = $2, g = 2%, rf = 3%, rp = 5% P= $2/(.03+.05-.02) P = $2/.06 = $33.33

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what if risk premium rises to 7%? what if risk premium rises to 7%? P = $2/(.03+.07-.02) = $2/.08 = $12.50 what if risk premium falls to 3%? P = $2/(.03+.03-.02) = $2/.04 = $50 Dividend discount model shows us why stock prices are volatile

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Price Earnings Valuation Method (Cont’d) The PE ratio can be used to estimate the value of a firm’s stock. The product of the PE ratio times the expected earnings is the firm’s stock price. (P/E) x E = P

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Stock Analysis Fundamental analysis Quantitative analysis Based on financial statements Qualitative analysis More subjective Examines management skill Technical analysis Examines past performance Of firm and market

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Implications of the Theory of Rational Expectations Even though a rational expectation equals the optimal forecast using all available information, a prediction based on it may not always be perfectly accurate It takes too much effort to make the expectation the best guess possible. Best guess will not be accurate because predictor is unaware of some relevant information.

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Implications If there is a change in the way a variable moves, the way in which expectations of the variable are formed will change as well. The forecast errors of expectations will, on average, be zero and cannot be predicted ahead of time.

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Efficient Markets: An Application of Rational Expectations

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Implications of the EMH for the stock market: Investing in the Stock Market: Recommendations from investment advisors cannot help us outperform the market. A hot tip is probably information already contained in the price of the stock. Stock prices respond to announcements only when the information is new and unexpected. A “buy and hold” strategy is the most sensible strategy for the small investor.

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Evidence Against Market Efficiency Small-firm effect January Effect Market Overreaction Excessive Volatility Mean Reversion New information is not always immediately incorporated into stock prices Chaos and fractals

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(b)Behavioural Finance. The lack of short selling (causing over-priced stocks) may be explained by loss aversion. The large trading volume may be explained by investor overconfidence. Stock market bubbles may be explained by overconfidence and social contagion.

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Bubbles Bubbles Large gaps between actual asset price and fundamental value Internet stock bubble of late 1990s Housing bubble? Eventually the bubble bursts!

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In the Generalized Dividend Valuation Model equation: “Fundamentals”: “Bubble”:

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Implications of efficiency evidence very difficult for average person to beat the market trying to do so generates trading costs the alternative buy-and-hold diversified portfolio indexing

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conclusion stock market price behavior combines fundamentals investor psychology markets are not perfectly efficient field of behavioral economics, finance On rational Expectations Stocks Valuation Stock Dividend Model