🗊Презентация The data of macroeconomics

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Слайд 1





The Data of Macroeconomics
Описание слайда:
The Data of Macroeconomics

Слайд 2





In this chapter, you will learn…
…the meaning and measurement of the 
most important macroeconomic statistics:
Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
The Consumer Price Index (CPI)
The unemployment rate
Описание слайда:
In this chapter, you will learn… …the meaning and measurement of the most important macroeconomic statistics: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) The unemployment rate

Слайд 3





Gross Domestic Product:  Expenditure and Income
Two definitions:
Total expenditure on domestically-produced 
final goods and services.
Total income earned by domestically-located 
factors of production.
Описание слайда:
Gross Domestic Product: Expenditure and Income Two definitions: Total expenditure on domestically-produced final goods and services. Total income earned by domestically-located factors of production.

Слайд 4





The Circular Flow
Описание слайда:
The Circular Flow

Слайд 5





Value added
definition:  
A firm’s value added is 
the value of its output 
	minus 
the value of the intermediate goods 
the firm used to produce that output.
Описание слайда:
Value added definition: A firm’s value added is the value of its output minus the value of the intermediate goods the firm used to produce that output.

Слайд 6





Exercise:   (Problem 2, p. 40)
A farmer grows a bushel of wheat 
and sells it to a miller for $1.00.  
The miller turns the wheat into flour 
and sells it to a baker for $3.00.  
The baker uses the flour to make a loaf of 
bread and sells it to an engineer for $6.00.  
The engineer eats the bread.  
Compute & compare 
value added at each stage of production 
and GDP
Описание слайда:
Exercise: (Problem 2, p. 40) A farmer grows a bushel of wheat and sells it to a miller for $1.00. The miller turns the wheat into flour and sells it to a baker for $3.00. The baker uses the flour to make a loaf of bread and sells it to an engineer for $6.00. The engineer eats the bread. Compute & compare value added at each stage of production and GDP

Слайд 7





Final goods, value added, and GDP
GDP 	= value of final goods produced 
		= sum of value added at all stages 	 		   of production.
The value of the final goods already includes the value of the intermediate goods, 
so including intermediate and final goods in GDP would be double-counting.
Описание слайда:
Final goods, value added, and GDP GDP = value of final goods produced = sum of value added at all stages of production. The value of the final goods already includes the value of the intermediate goods, so including intermediate and final goods in GDP would be double-counting.

Слайд 8





The expenditure components of GDP
consumption
investment
government spending
net exports
Описание слайда:
The expenditure components of GDP consumption investment government spending net exports

Слайд 9





Consumption (C)
durable goods 
last a long time 
ex:  cars, home appliances
nondurable goods
last a short time  
ex:  food, clothing
services
work done for consumers  
ex:  dry cleaning, 
air travel.
Описание слайда:
Consumption (C) durable goods last a long time ex: cars, home appliances nondurable goods last a short time ex: food, clothing services work done for consumers ex: dry cleaning, air travel.

Слайд 10





U.S. consumption, 2005
Описание слайда:
U.S. consumption, 2005

Слайд 11





Investment (I)
Definition 1:  Spending on [the factor of production] capital.
Definition 2:  Spending on goods bought for future use
Includes:
business fixed investment
Spending on plant and equipment that firms will use to produce other goods & services.
residential fixed investment
Spending on housing units by consumers and landlords.
inventory investment
The change in the value of all firms’ inventories.
Описание слайда:
Investment (I) Definition 1: Spending on [the factor of production] capital. Definition 2: Spending on goods bought for future use Includes: business fixed investment Spending on plant and equipment that firms will use to produce other goods & services. residential fixed investment Spending on housing units by consumers and landlords. inventory investment The change in the value of all firms’ inventories.

Слайд 12





U.S. investment, 2005
Описание слайда:
U.S. investment, 2005

Слайд 13





Investment vs. Capital
Note:  Investment is spending on new capital.
Example (assumes no depreciation):  
1/1/2006:  
economy has $500b worth of capital
during 2006:
investment = $60b
1/1/2007: 
economy will have $560b worth of capital
Описание слайда:
Investment vs. Capital Note: Investment is spending on new capital. Example (assumes no depreciation): 1/1/2006: economy has $500b worth of capital during 2006: investment = $60b 1/1/2007: economy will have $560b worth of capital

Слайд 14





Stocks vs. Flows
A flow is a quantity measured per unit of time.  
E.g., “U.S. investment was $2.5 trillion during 2006.”
Описание слайда:
Stocks vs. Flows A flow is a quantity measured per unit of time. E.g., “U.S. investment was $2.5 trillion during 2006.”

Слайд 15





Stocks vs. Flows  -  examples
Описание слайда:
Stocks vs. Flows - examples

Слайд 16





Now you try: 
Stock or flow?
the balance on your credit card statement
how much you study economics outside of class
the size of your compact disc collection
the inflation rate
the unemployment rate
Описание слайда:
Now you try: Stock or flow? the balance on your credit card statement how much you study economics outside of class the size of your compact disc collection the inflation rate the unemployment rate

Слайд 17





Government spending (G)
G includes all government spending on goods and services..
G excludes transfer payments 
(e.g., unemployment insurance payments), because they do not represent spending on goods and services.
Описание слайда:
Government spending (G) G includes all government spending on goods and services.. G excludes transfer payments (e.g., unemployment insurance payments), because they do not represent spending on goods and services.

Слайд 18





U.S. government spending, 2005
Описание слайда:
U.S. government spending, 2005

Слайд 19





Net exports:  NX = EX – IM
def:  The value of total exports (EX) 
minus the value of total imports (IM).
Описание слайда:
Net exports: NX = EX – IM def: The value of total exports (EX) minus the value of total imports (IM).

Слайд 20





An important identity
Y   =   C  +  I  +  G  +  NX
Описание слайда:
An important identity Y = C + I + G + NX

Слайд 21





A question for you:
Suppose a firm 
produces $10 million worth of final goods
but only sells $9 million worth.
Does this violate the 
expenditure = output identity?
Описание слайда:
A question for you: Suppose a firm produces $10 million worth of final goods but only sells $9 million worth. Does this violate the expenditure = output identity?

Слайд 22





Why output = expenditure
Unsold output goes into inventory, 
and is counted as “inventory investment”…
	…whether or not the inventory buildup was intentional.    
In effect, we are assuming that 
firms purchase their unsold output.
Описание слайда:
Why output = expenditure Unsold output goes into inventory, and is counted as “inventory investment”… …whether or not the inventory buildup was intentional. In effect, we are assuming that firms purchase their unsold output.

Слайд 23





GDP:  
An important and versatile concept
We have now seen that GDP measures
total income
total output
total expenditure
the sum of value-added at all stages 
in the production of final goods
Описание слайда:
GDP: An important and versatile concept We have now seen that GDP measures total income total output total expenditure the sum of value-added at all stages in the production of final goods

Слайд 24





GNP vs. GDP
Gross National Product (GNP): 
Total income earned by the nation’s factors of production, regardless of where located.
Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
Total income earned by domestically-located factors of production, regardless of nationality.
	(GNP – GDP) = (factor payments from abroad) 
			 – (factor payments to abroad)
Описание слайда:
GNP vs. GDP Gross National Product (GNP): Total income earned by the nation’s factors of production, regardless of where located. Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Total income earned by domestically-located factors of production, regardless of nationality. (GNP – GDP) = (factor payments from abroad) – (factor payments to abroad)

Слайд 25





Discussion question:
In your country, 
which would you want 
to be bigger, GDP, or GNP?  
Why?
Описание слайда:
Discussion question: In your country, which would you want to be bigger, GDP, or GNP? Why?

Слайд 26





(GNP – GDP) as a percentage of GDP 
selected countries, 2002
Описание слайда:
(GNP – GDP) as a percentage of GDP selected countries, 2002

Слайд 27





Real vs. nominal GDP
GDP is the value of all final goods and services produced.    
nominal GDP measures these values using current prices.  
real GDP measure these values using the prices of a base year.
Описание слайда:
Real vs. nominal GDP GDP is the value of all final goods and services produced. nominal GDP measures these values using current prices. real GDP measure these values using the prices of a base year.

Слайд 28





Practice problem, part 1
Compute nominal GDP in each year.
Compute real GDP in each year using 2006 as the base year.
Описание слайда:
Practice problem, part 1 Compute nominal GDP in each year. Compute real GDP in each year using 2006 as the base year.

Слайд 29





Answers to practice problem, part 1
nominal GDP  multiply Ps & Qs from same year
2006:  $46,200 = $30  900 + $100  192 
2007:  $51,400 
2008:  $58,300
real GDP    multiply each year’s Qs by 2006 Ps
2006:  $46,200
2007:  $50,000 
2008:  $52,000 = $30  1050 + $100  205
Описание слайда:
Answers to practice problem, part 1 nominal GDP multiply Ps & Qs from same year 2006: $46,200 = $30  900 + $100  192 2007: $51,400 2008: $58,300 real GDP multiply each year’s Qs by 2006 Ps 2006: $46,200 2007: $50,000 2008: $52,000 = $30  1050 + $100  205

Слайд 30





Real GDP controls for inflation
Changes in nominal GDP can be due to:
changes in prices. 
changes in quantities of output produced.
Changes in real GDP can only be due to changes in quantities,
because real GDP is constructed using 
constant base-year prices.
Описание слайда:
Real GDP controls for inflation Changes in nominal GDP can be due to: changes in prices. changes in quantities of output produced. Changes in real GDP can only be due to changes in quantities, because real GDP is constructed using constant base-year prices.

Слайд 31





U.S. Nominal and Real GDP, 
1950–2006
Описание слайда:
U.S. Nominal and Real GDP, 1950–2006

Слайд 32





GDP Deflator
The inflation rate is the percentage increase in the overall level of prices.
One measure of the price level is 
the GDP deflator, defined as
Описание слайда:
GDP Deflator The inflation rate is the percentage increase in the overall level of prices. One measure of the price level is the GDP deflator, defined as

Слайд 33





Practice problem, part 2
Use your previous answers to compute 
the GDP deflator in each year. 
Use GDP deflator to compute the inflation rate from 2006 to 2007, and from 2007 to 2008.
Описание слайда:
Practice problem, part 2 Use your previous answers to compute the GDP deflator in each year. Use GDP deflator to compute the inflation rate from 2006 to 2007, and from 2007 to 2008.

Слайд 34





Answers to practice problem, part 2
Описание слайда:
Answers to practice problem, part 2

Слайд 35





Understanding the GDP deflator
Описание слайда:
Understanding the GDP deflator

Слайд 36





Understanding the GDP deflator
Описание слайда:
Understanding the GDP deflator

Слайд 37





Two arithmetic tricks for 
working with percentage changes
EX:	If your hourly wage rises 5% 
and you work 7% more hours, 
then your wage income rises 
approximately 12%.
Описание слайда:
Two arithmetic tricks for working with percentage changes EX: If your hourly wage rises 5% and you work 7% more hours, then your wage income rises approximately 12%.

Слайд 38





Two arithmetic tricks for 
working with percentage changes
EX:	GDP deflator = 100  NGDP/RGDP.
	If NGDP rises 9% and RGDP rises 4%, 
then the inflation rate is approximately 5%.
Описание слайда:
Two arithmetic tricks for working with percentage changes EX: GDP deflator = 100  NGDP/RGDP. If NGDP rises 9% and RGDP rises 4%, then the inflation rate is approximately 5%.

Слайд 39





Chain-Weighted Real GDP
Over time, relative prices change, so the base year should be updated periodically.
In essence, chain-weighted real GDP 
updates the base year every year, 
so it is more accurate than constant-price GDP.
Your textbook usually uses 
constant-price real GDP, because: 
the two measures are highly correlated.
constant-price real GDP is easier to compute.
Описание слайда:
Chain-Weighted Real GDP Over time, relative prices change, so the base year should be updated periodically. In essence, chain-weighted real GDP updates the base year every year, so it is more accurate than constant-price GDP. Your textbook usually uses constant-price real GDP, because: the two measures are highly correlated. constant-price real GDP is easier to compute.

Слайд 40





Consumer Price Index (CPI)
A measure of the overall level of prices 
Published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) 
Uses: 
tracks changes in the typical household’s 
cost of living
adjusts many contracts for inflation (“COLAs”)
allows comparisons of dollar amounts over time
Описание слайда:
Consumer Price Index (CPI) A measure of the overall level of prices Published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) Uses: tracks changes in the typical household’s cost of living adjusts many contracts for inflation (“COLAs”) allows comparisons of dollar amounts over time

Слайд 41





How the BLS constructs the CPI
1.	Survey consumers to determine composition of the typical consumer’s “basket” of goods.
2.	Every month, collect data on prices of all items in the basket; compute cost of basket
3.	CPI in any month equals
Описание слайда:
How the BLS constructs the CPI 1. Survey consumers to determine composition of the typical consumer’s “basket” of goods. 2. Every month, collect data on prices of all items in the basket; compute cost of basket 3. CPI in any month equals

Слайд 42





Exercise:  Compute the CPI
Basket contains 20 pizzas and 10 compact discs.
Описание слайда:
Exercise: Compute the CPI Basket contains 20 pizzas and 10 compact discs.

Слайд 43





Answers:
	Cost of 		Inflation
	basket	  CPI	rate
2002	$350	100.0	n.a.
2003	 370	105.7	5.7%
2004	 400	114.3	8.1%
2005	 410	117.1	2.5%
Описание слайда:
Answers: Cost of Inflation basket CPI rate 2002 $350 100.0 n.a. 2003 370 105.7 5.7% 2004 400 114.3 8.1% 2005 410 117.1 2.5%

Слайд 44





The composition of the CPI’s “basket”
Описание слайда:
The composition of the CPI’s “basket”

Слайд 45





Understanding the CPI
Описание слайда:
Understanding the CPI

Слайд 46





Understanding the CPI
Описание слайда:
Understanding the CPI

Слайд 47





Reasons why 
the CPI may overstate inflation
Substitution bias:   The CPI uses fixed weights, 
so it cannot reflect consumers’ ability to substitute toward goods whose relative prices have fallen.
Introduction of new goods:   The introduction of new goods makes consumers better off and, in effect, increases the real value of the dollar.  But it does not reduce the CPI, because the CPI uses fixed weights.
Unmeasured changes in quality:   
Quality improvements increase the value of the dollar, but are often not fully measured.
Описание слайда:
Reasons why the CPI may overstate inflation Substitution bias: The CPI uses fixed weights, so it cannot reflect consumers’ ability to substitute toward goods whose relative prices have fallen. Introduction of new goods: The introduction of new goods makes consumers better off and, in effect, increases the real value of the dollar. But it does not reduce the CPI, because the CPI uses fixed weights. Unmeasured changes in quality: Quality improvements increase the value of the dollar, but are often not fully measured.

Слайд 48





The size of the CPI’s bias
In 1995, a Senate-appointed panel of experts estimated that the CPI overstates inflation by about 1.1% per year.
So the BLS made adjustments to reduce the bias.
Now, the CPI’s bias is probably under 1% per year.
Описание слайда:
The size of the CPI’s bias In 1995, a Senate-appointed panel of experts estimated that the CPI overstates inflation by about 1.1% per year. So the BLS made adjustments to reduce the bias. Now, the CPI’s bias is probably under 1% per year.

Слайд 49





Discussion questions:
If your grandmother receives Social Security, 
how is she affected by the CPI’s bias?
Where does the government get the money to pay COLAs to Social Security recipients?
If you pay income and Social Security taxes, 
how does the CPI’s bias affect you?
Is the government giving your grandmother 
too much of a COLA?
How does your grandmother’s “basket” 
differ from the CPI’s?
Описание слайда:
Discussion questions: If your grandmother receives Social Security, how is she affected by the CPI’s bias? Where does the government get the money to pay COLAs to Social Security recipients? If you pay income and Social Security taxes, how does the CPI’s bias affect you? Is the government giving your grandmother too much of a COLA? How does your grandmother’s “basket” differ from the CPI’s?

Слайд 50





CPI vs. GDP Deflator
prices of capital goods
included in GDP deflator (if produced domestically)
excluded from CPI
prices of imported consumer goods
included in CPI
excluded from GDP deflator
the basket of goods
CPI:  fixed
GDP deflator:  changes every year
Описание слайда:
CPI vs. GDP Deflator prices of capital goods included in GDP deflator (if produced domestically) excluded from CPI prices of imported consumer goods included in CPI excluded from GDP deflator the basket of goods CPI: fixed GDP deflator: changes every year

Слайд 51





Two measures of inflation in the U.S.
Описание слайда:
Two measures of inflation in the U.S.

Слайд 52





Categories of the population
employed  
working at a paid job  
unemployed  
not employed but looking for a job  
labor force  
the amount of labor available for producing goods and services; all employed plus unemployed persons 
not in the labor force  
not employed, not looking for work
Описание слайда:
Categories of the population employed working at a paid job unemployed not employed but looking for a job labor force the amount of labor available for producing goods and services; all employed plus unemployed persons not in the labor force not employed, not looking for work

Слайд 53





Two important labor force concepts
unemployment rate 
percentage of the labor force that is unemployed
labor force participation rate 
the fraction of the adult population 
that “participates” in the labor force
Описание слайда:
Two important labor force concepts unemployment rate percentage of the labor force that is unemployed labor force participation rate the fraction of the adult population that “participates” in the labor force

Слайд 54





Exercise:  
Compute labor force statistics
U.S. adult population by group, June 2006
	Number employed 	= 	144.4 million
	Number unemployed 	= 	7.0 million
	Adult population 	= 	228.8 million
Описание слайда:
Exercise: Compute labor force statistics U.S. adult population by group, June 2006 Number employed = 144.4 million Number unemployed = 7.0 million Adult population = 228.8 million

Слайд 55





Answers:
data:  E = 144.4,  U = 7.0,  POP = 228.8
labor force
L = E +U = 144.4 + 7 = 151.4
not in labor force
NILF = POP  – L = 228.8 – 151.4 = 77.4
unemployment rate
U/L x 100% = (7/151.4) x 100% = 4.6%
labor force participation rate
L/POP  x 100% = (151.4/228.8) x 100% = 66.2%
Описание слайда:
Answers: data: E = 144.4, U = 7.0, POP = 228.8 labor force L = E +U = 144.4 + 7 = 151.4 not in labor force NILF = POP – L = 228.8 – 151.4 = 77.4 unemployment rate U/L x 100% = (7/151.4) x 100% = 4.6% labor force participation rate L/POP x 100% = (151.4/228.8) x 100% = 66.2%

Слайд 56





Exercise:  Compute percentage changes in labor force statistics
Suppose 
population increases by 1%
labor force increases by 3%
number of unemployed persons increases by 2%
Compute the percentage changes in 
	the labor force participation rate:
	the unemployment rate:
Описание слайда:
Exercise: Compute percentage changes in labor force statistics Suppose population increases by 1% labor force increases by 3% number of unemployed persons increases by 2% Compute the percentage changes in the labor force participation rate: the unemployment rate:

Слайд 57





The establishment survey
The BLS obtains a second measure of employment by surveying businesses, asking how many workers are on their payrolls.
Neither measure is perfect, and they occasionally diverge due to:
treatment of self-employed persons
new firms not counted in establishment survey
technical issues involving population inferences from sample data
Описание слайда:
The establishment survey The BLS obtains a second measure of employment by surveying businesses, asking how many workers are on their payrolls. Neither measure is perfect, and they occasionally diverge due to: treatment of self-employed persons new firms not counted in establishment survey technical issues involving population inferences from sample data

Слайд 58





Two measures of employment growth
Описание слайда:
Two measures of employment growth

Слайд 59





Chapter Summary
1.	Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures both total income and total expenditure on the economy’s output of goods & services.
2.	Nominal GDP values output at current prices; 
real GDP values output at constant prices.  Changes in output affect both measures, 
but changes in prices only affect nominal GDP. 
3.	GDP is the sum of consumption, investment, government purchases, and net exports.
Описание слайда:
Chapter Summary 1. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) measures both total income and total expenditure on the economy’s output of goods & services. 2. Nominal GDP values output at current prices; real GDP values output at constant prices. Changes in output affect both measures, but changes in prices only affect nominal GDP. 3. GDP is the sum of consumption, investment, government purchases, and net exports.

Слайд 60





Chapter Summary
4.	The overall level of prices can be measured by either
the Consumer Price Index (CPI), 
the price of a fixed basket of goods 
purchased by the typical consumer, or
the GDP deflator, 
the ratio of nominal to real GDP
5.	The unemployment rate is the fraction of the labor force that is not employed.
Описание слайда:
Chapter Summary 4. The overall level of prices can be measured by either the Consumer Price Index (CPI), the price of a fixed basket of goods purchased by the typical consumer, or the GDP deflator, the ratio of nominal to real GDP 5. The unemployment rate is the fraction of the labor force that is not employed.



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