🗊Презентация Распределение рисков и стратегия доставки

Cargo owners have strategic choices, too. The distribution of risk between the spot and period markets is a meter of policy, and the balance will change with circumstances. Oil transport provides a good example. In the 1950s and 1960s the oil companies owned or time-chartered most of the ships they need. taking only 5-10% from the voyage charter market. So in 1973 there was 129 m.dwt of independent tanker tonnage on time charter and only 20 m.dwt on the spot market (see Figure in Chapter 5). However, after the oil crisis in 1973 the oil trade became more volatile and oil shippers, which now included many traders, started to switch to the spot market, so by 1983 the tonnage trading spot had increased to 140 m.dwt and only 28 m.dwt was on time-charter. So in 10 years tanker shipping risk was completely redistributed. One benefit of this was that which such a large spot market there was increased liquidity, making it a more viable transport source for shippers than the tiny spot market in the early 1970s. Cargo owners have strategic choices, too. The distribution of risk between the spot and period markets is a meter of policy, and the balance will change with circumstances. Oil transport provides a good example. In the 1950s and 1960s the oil companies owned or time-chartered most of the ships they need. taking only 5-10% from the voyage charter market. So in 1973 there was 129 m.dwt of independent tanker tonnage on time charter and only 20 m.dwt on the spot market (see Figure in Chapter 5). However, after the oil crisis in 1973 the oil trade became more volatile and oil shippers, which now included many traders, started to switch to the spot market, so by 1983 the tonnage trading spot had increased to 140 m.dwt and only 28 m.dwt was on time-charter. So in 10 years tanker shipping risk was completely redistributed. One benefit of this was that which such a large spot market there was increased liquidity, making it a more viable transport source for shippers than the tiny spot market in the early 1970s. Грузовладельцы также имеют выбор стратегии. Распределение риска между спот-рынком/наличным рынком и рынком по сделкам на срок является вопросом политики, и баланс будет меняться вместе с обстоятельствами. Перевозка нефти представляет собой хороший пример. В 1950-е и 1960-е годы нефтяные компании владели или временно фрахтовали большинство судов, которые были им нужны, занимая только 5-10% от фрахтового рынка. Так в 1973 году было 129 миллионов тонн валовой грузоподъемности (дедвейт) независимого танкерного тоннажа в тайм-чартере (зафрахтовано на определенный срок) и только 20 миллионов тонн на спот-рынке /наличном рынке (см рисунок в главе 5). Тем не менее, после нефтяного кризиса в 1973 году торговля нефтью стала более нестабильной и перевозчики нефти, которые на тот момент включали также многих торговцев, начали переходить на спот-рынок, так что к 1983 году тоннаж спот-торговли увеличился до 140 миллионов тонн грузоподъемности и только 28 миллионов тонн были в тайм-чартере. Таким образом, через 10 лет риски танкерных перевозок были полностью перераспределены. Одним из преимуществ этого было то, что с таким большим спотовым рынком была увеличена ликвидность, что делает его более жизнеспособным источником транспорта для грузоотправителей, чем крошечный спот-рынок в начале 1970-х годов.

22 cycles are numbered in Figure3.5 ignoring the mirror year-to-year fluctuations and focusing on major peaks. From 1869 it was possible to confirm the status of the indentified peaks and thoughts by referring to contemporary brokers reports, and this resulted in 1881 and 1970 being treated as peks although they aren’t prominent in statistical terms. Table 3.1 provides a statistical analysis of the length of the 22 cycles since 1741 and shows that they vary enormously in length and severity. Between 1741 and 2007 there were 22 cycles lasting 10.4 years on average, though only one actually lasted 10 years. Thee cycles were over 15 years, three lasted 15 years, one lasted 14 years , one lasted 13 years, three 11 years, one 10 years, three 7 years, two 6 years, two 5 years, one 4 years, and one 3 years. In statistical terms, the standard deviation was 4.9 years, so with a mean of 10.4 years we can be 95% certain that cycles will last between 0 and 20 years 22 cycles are numbered in Figure3.5 ignoring the mirror year-to-year fluctuations and focusing on major peaks. From 1869 it was possible to confirm the status of the indentified peaks and thoughts by referring to contemporary brokers reports, and this resulted in 1881 and 1970 being treated as peks although they aren’t prominent in statistical terms. Table 3.1 provides a statistical analysis of the length of the 22 cycles since 1741 and shows that they vary enormously in length and severity. Between 1741 and 2007 there were 22 cycles lasting 10.4 years on average, though only one actually lasted 10 years. Thee cycles were over 15 years, three lasted 15 years, one lasted 14 years , one lasted 13 years, three 11 years, one 10 years, three 7 years, two 6 years, two 5 years, one 4 years, and one 3 years. In statistical terms, the standard deviation was 4.9 years, so with a mean of 10.4 years we can be 95% certain that cycles will last between 0 and 20 years

Таблица 3.1 представляет собой статистический анализ длины 22 циклов с 1741 года и показывает, что они сильно различаются по длине и интенсивности. Между 1741 и 2007 насчитывают 22 цикла продолжительностью в среднем 10,4 года, хотя только один фактически длился 10 лет. Три цикла длились более 15 лет, три - 15 лет; один - 14 лет; один - 13 лет; три - 11 лет; один - 10 лет; три - 7 лет; два - 6 лет; два - 5 лет; один - 4 года; а также один – 3 года. С точки зрения статистики, стандартное отклонение составляет 4,9 года, так что, взяв 10.4 года за среднее значение, мы можем быть на 95% уверены, что циклы будут длиться от 0 до 20 лет. Таблица 3.1 представляет собой статистический анализ длины 22 циклов с 1741 года и показывает, что они сильно различаются по длине и интенсивности. Между 1741 и 2007 насчитывают 22 цикла продолжительностью в среднем 10,4 года, хотя только один фактически длился 10 лет. Три цикла длились более 15 лет, три - 15 лет; один - 14 лет; один - 13 лет; три - 11 лет; один - 10 лет; три - 7 лет; два - 6 лет; два - 5 лет; один - 4 года; а также один – 3 года. С точки зрения статистики, стандартное отклонение составляет 4,9 года, так что, взяв 10.4 года за среднее значение, мы можем быть на 95% уверены, что циклы будут длиться от 0 до 20 лет. Таблица 3.1 также показывает длину пиков и спадов каждого цикла. Начало, конец и общая длина каждого циклического пика представлена в колонках 2-4, и та же информация для каждого спада рынка в колонках 5-7. И, наконец, колонка 8 показывает общую длину каждого цикла, включая пики и спады. Наконец, следует отметить, что между 1741 и 2007 годами было три крупных войны - наполеоновская война, Первая и Вторая мировые войны - и многочисленные меньшие войны и революции, так что это был довольно тернистый путь. Поскольку крупные войны подрывали рынок, статистика фрахта для этих периодов исключена из анализа. Самый длинный циклический пик, определяемый как период, когда грузовой индекс был стабильно выше долгосрочного тренда, длился 10 лет, в то время как самый длинный спад также длился 10 лет. Однако было много циклов, которые длились только 1 год и довольно часто случались 2-летние спады.

Figure 3.6 which plots the cycles in chronological order by length, reveals two interesting points. Firstly, cycles were longer in the sailing era than during the steamship era which followers, and the average length of cycle fell from 12.5 years in 1743 to 7.5 years in 2003. This could be associated with the technology. Or possibly global communications which first appeared in 1865 could have affected the dynamic adjustment process. So for the present there may be some merit in the industry rule of thumb that shipping cycles last about 7 years. Secondly, the graph suggests that the length of cycles was itself cyclical. The long cycles of 12-15 years were generally separated by a requirence of short cycles, sometimes lasting less than 5 years. Foe example the long cycle in 1956 was preceded two short cycles and the 1988 long cycle was preceded by three short cycles. Although the pattern isn’t regular, there could, for example, be a dynamic mechanism which produces alternating long and short cycles. But there are clearly no firm rules and the main conclusion is that shipping investors who rely on rules of thumb about the length of cycles are asking for trouble. We need to dig deeper for an explanation of what drives these cycles. Figure 3.6 which plots the cycles in chronological order by length, reveals two interesting points. Firstly, cycles were longer in the sailing era than during the steamship era which followers, and the average length of cycle fell from 12.5 years in 1743 to 7.5 years in 2003. This could be associated with the technology. Or possibly global communications which first appeared in 1865 could have affected the dynamic adjustment process. So for the present there may be some merit in the industry rule of thumb that shipping cycles last about 7 years. Secondly, the graph suggests that the length of cycles was itself cyclical. The long cycles of 12-15 years were generally separated by a requirence of short cycles, sometimes lasting less than 5 years. Foe example the long cycle in 1956 was preceded two short cycles and the 1988 long cycle was preceded by three short cycles. Although the pattern isn’t regular, there could, for example, be a dynamic mechanism which produces alternating long and short cycles. But there are clearly no firm rules and the main conclusion is that shipping investors who rely on rules of thumb about the length of cycles are asking for trouble. We need to dig deeper for an explanation of what drives these cycles.