🗊Презентация introduction

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Introduction Mikhail Kamrotov Data Analysis in Economics and Finance Fall 2019
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Introduction Mikhail Kamrotov Data Analysis in Economics and Finance Fall 2019

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What is Research? Performing research is a formal way to ask questions and search for answers. To convince others that the answer we have found is convincing, we can’t just tell them our results; We need to describe the process that lead us to those results, so that they can judge whether or not we’ve come to a valid conclusion. Key problem: what methods are to be used to ensure validity and credibility? Source: Powers D., ”How to Write a Research Paper in Economics?”
Описание слайда:
What is Research? Performing research is a formal way to ask questions and search for answers. To convince others that the answer we have found is convincing, we can’t just tell them our results; We need to describe the process that lead us to those results, so that they can judge whether or not we’ve come to a valid conclusion. Key problem: what methods are to be used to ensure validity and credibility? Source: Powers D., ”How to Write a Research Paper in Economics?”

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Examples of ”Economic” Questions How would an individual/group solve a particular problem, or respond to a particular incentive? E.g. If the interest rate on a deposit account increases by 5%, how much more would an individual save per month? How would a particular variable respond to an exogenous shock? E.g. How would the USDRUB rate change in response to an increase in oil prices? Most interesting economic questions result in the need for predictions Source: Powers D., ”How to Write a Research Paper in Economics?”
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Examples of ”Economic” Questions How would an individual/group solve a particular problem, or respond to a particular incentive? E.g. If the interest rate on a deposit account increases by 5%, how much more would an individual save per month? How would a particular variable respond to an exogenous shock? E.g. How would the USDRUB rate change in response to an increase in oil prices? Most interesting economic questions result in the need for predictions Source: Powers D., ”How to Write a Research Paper in Economics?”

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Types of Economic Research Theoretical Empirical Theoretical + empirical The key difference between these paper types is how they try to answer the research question. Source: Powers D., ”How to Write a Research Paper in Economics?”
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Types of Economic Research Theoretical Empirical Theoretical + empirical The key difference between these paper types is how they try to answer the research question. Source: Powers D., ”How to Write a Research Paper in Economics?”

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Types of Economic Research Theoretical papers make reasonable assumptions about the relevant environment and actors involved, and then predict what should “theoretically” happen if the event described by the research question came true. Empirical papers use data collected by observation, or by experiment, to answer a research question.
Описание слайда:
Types of Economic Research Theoretical papers make reasonable assumptions about the relevant environment and actors involved, and then predict what should “theoretically” happen if the event described by the research question came true. Empirical papers use data collected by observation, or by experiment, to answer a research question.

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Current State of Economic Theory The sad truth about theoretical research: “Economics in its current form does not describe empirical reality but an idealized rational economic world.” (Focardi & Fabozzi, 2012) The sad truth about academic empirical research: most discoveries are likely false (Lopez de Prado, 2017) “Is Economics Research Replicable? Sixty Published Papers from Thirteen Journals Say “Usually Not”” (Chang & Li 2015) Overfitting and p-hacking (Lopez de Prado, 2017, 2019)
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Current State of Economic Theory The sad truth about theoretical research: “Economics in its current form does not describe empirical reality but an idealized rational economic world.” (Focardi & Fabozzi, 2012) The sad truth about academic empirical research: most discoveries are likely false (Lopez de Prado, 2017) “Is Economics Research Replicable? Sixty Published Papers from Thirteen Journals Say “Usually Not”” (Chang & Li 2015) Overfitting and p-hacking (Lopez de Prado, 2017, 2019)

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Industrial Finance Finding a plausible explanation of the past is a no-brainer Bad models never get published Out-of-sample success is the only way to prove validity of any economic model What is the measure of success?
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Industrial Finance Finding a plausible explanation of the past is a no-brainer Bad models never get published Out-of-sample success is the only way to prove validity of any economic model What is the measure of success?

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Validation of Economic Models Models are better evaluated through profits than through theoretical measures such as errors (Leitch, Tanner, 1991) Backtesting is the process of applying an analytical method to historical data to see how accurately the method would have predicted actual results. A good backtest could be easily designed but it will typically perform erratically out-of-sample (Bailey, Borwein, & Lopez de Prado, 2016) Researches should have “skin in the game”, or have a measurable risk when taking a major decision (Thaleb, 2018) The only credible validation is the live performance of economic models
Описание слайда:
Validation of Economic Models Models are better evaluated through profits than through theoretical measures such as errors (Leitch, Tanner, 1991) Backtesting is the process of applying an analytical method to historical data to see how accurately the method would have predicted actual results. A good backtest could be easily designed but it will typically perform erratically out-of-sample (Bailey, Borwein, & Lopez de Prado, 2016) Researches should have “skin in the game”, or have a measurable risk when taking a major decision (Thaleb, 2018) The only credible validation is the live performance of economic models

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Investment Funds Performance Many actively managed mutual funds are struggling to match passive, index-linked equivalents (Morningstar’s Active/Passive Barometer, February 2019; https://us.spindices.com/spiva/#/) Best funds are quantitative ones (https://mathinvestor.org/2019/03/majority-of-highest-earning-hedge-fund-managers-and-traders-are-at-quant-firms/)
Описание слайда:
Investment Funds Performance Many actively managed mutual funds are struggling to match passive, index-linked equivalents (Morningstar’s Active/Passive Barometer, February 2019; https://us.spindices.com/spiva/#/) Best funds are quantitative ones (https://mathinvestor.org/2019/03/majority-of-highest-earning-hedge-fund-managers-and-traders-are-at-quant-firms/)

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Funds Earnings 2017 (Forbes)
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Funds Earnings 2017 (Forbes)

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Conclusions Data analyst skills are highly rewarded by the market Do not blindly trust the results of research papers in economic and financial journals Let the data speak for itself! P. S. The #1 Master’s program in finance in the world uses R (https://bcf.princeton.edu/master-in-finance/courses/)
Описание слайда:
Conclusions Data analyst skills are highly rewarded by the market Do not blindly trust the results of research papers in economic and financial journals Let the data speak for itself! P. S. The #1 Master’s program in finance in the world uses R (https://bcf.princeton.edu/master-in-finance/courses/)

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