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Comparing political culture Inglehart’s Theory of Value Change and Support for Democracy

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Class Structure What is ‘political culture’ and what is Inglehart’s theory of value change? What evidence supports the general theory? Potential criticisms of Inglehart? What are the consequences for support for democracy and democratization?

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What is political culture? Components: Values and priorities Cognitive beliefs, attitudes, and opinions, Social norms and practices Gabriel Almond and Sidney Verba’s The Civic Culture (1963) – “Attitudes towards the political system and its various parts, and attitudes towards the role of the self in the system.” Enduring orientation acquired due to the socialization process

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Claim that culture matters.. “If the democratic model is to develop in new nations, it will require more than the formal institutions of democracy..[it] requires as well a political culture consistent with it..the norms and values of ordinary citizens” Almond and Verba The Civic Culture (1963)

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1. Ronald Inglehart’s theory The Silent Revolution (1977) Culture Shift (1990) Modernization and Post-Modernization (1997) Inglehart & Norris Rising Tide (2003) Norris and Inglehart Sacred & Secular (2004) Inglehart and Welzel Modernization, cultural change and democracy (2005)

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Theory of cultural change “Economic, cultural and political change go together in coherent patterns that are changing the world in predictable ways.” Inglehart Ch 1. Probabilistic non-linear trajectories, but not precise predictions in all cases

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Premises of theory Values = personal or social goals Values > attitudes > beliefs Scarcity hypothesis Socialization hypothesis Maslovian value hierarchy

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Maslovian Value Hierarchy Social/ self-actualization needs (Post-Materialist) Physical needs (Materialist)

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Predictions Value change > social/political change Generational patterns (pre+post 1945) Decline of ‘old’ political cleavages Class, region, religion Rise of new politics Materialist v. post-materialist new parties eg Greens New social movements eg women, gays, environmentalists New public policy agenda New demands for participation beyond elections New ‘quality of life’ issues New left and new right Growing cultural demand for democratic institutions

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New political cleavages

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Cultural Shifts

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Process of social change Agrarian to modern From agriculture to heavy industry Rural to urban Division church and state Mass education and literacy Occupational specialization Working class and urban bourgeoisie, decline of peasants and landed estates Bureaucratic rational-legal authority, expansion of franchise Basic welfare state and social protection, education/health From extended to nuclear families Entry more women into paid workforce

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Qualifications Modernization =/=Westernization Modernization =/= democratization Change is not linear – can be stepped Not deterministic – reciprocal causal linkages or functional evolution

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2: Evidence “There is a lot of talk these days about what the aims of the country should be for the next ten years. On this card are listed some of the goals which different people would give as top priority. Would you please say which of these you consider the most important? And which would be the next most important? Maintaining order in the nation Giving people more say in important government decisions Fighting rising prices Protecting freedom of speech”

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Questions about the evidence Is economic development linked with cultural values? Do values cluster in predictable patterns? How does region and religion influence cultural values?

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89 Nations in the WVS 1980-2007

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WVS -Waves 1980-1984 - 22 nations 1990-1993 - 42 nations 1995-1997 - 53 nations 1999-2002 - 79 nations 2006-2007 – 42 nations to date Representative surveys per nation 1000 New sources Africa, Latin America, Asia, C&E Europe

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Cohort Analysis: EU

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Cohort Analysis

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3. Potential criticisms? Measure of post-materialism? Diverse patterns across societies e.g. environmental movement, green parties Economic-cultural determinism? Prospects for democracy in agrarian societies e.g. Can agrarian societies like India be democratic?

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4. Implications for democratic support Inglehart and Welzel’s theory Self-expression values influence subsequent democratic institutions (not vice versa) Direct attitudes towards democracy are less important than self-expression values

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Why does development strengthen self-expression values? Socio-economic development increases: Financial capital and economic resources (income and wealth) Human capital and cognitive resources (access to information and education), and Social capital (diversifying human interaction and networks) Reduces constraints (widens objective capacity of people to act according to their own choices) Leads towards self-expression values (subjective aspirations for choice) In turn, self-expression values lead towards greater demand for entitlement to choice, including civil and political liberties, and demand for democratic institutions

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Measuring self-expression values Post-materialist values R gives priority to post-materialist values (4-item index) Life satisfaction and subjective well-being R describes self as ‘very’ or ‘rather’ happy Tolerance of other’s liberty R agrees that homosexuality is justifiable (10-pt scale) Elite-challenging civil activity R would sign a petition Generalized interpersonal trust: R agrees ‘most people can be trusted most of the time’ Is the measure valid, reliable, and robust?

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Factor analysis loadings R gives priority to post-materialist values (4-item index) .87 R describes self as ‘very’ or ‘rather’ happy .81 R agrees that homosexuality is justifiable (10-pt scale) .77 R would sign a petition .74 R agrees ‘most people can be trusted most of the time’ .46 25% cross-national variations in ‘survival’ v. ‘self-expression’ values (Aggregate-level analysis WVS 78 societies 1981-2001)

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Defining and measuring democracy Constitutional democracy (exec constraints, etc) Polity IV 20-pt democracy-autocracy scale Electoral democracy Vanhanen 100-pt scale (Turnout*party competition) Formal democracy Civil and political liberties Freedom House 12-pt scale Regime change = 4+ pt FH scale change per year Major watershed 1987-1996 Effective democracy How far power-holders follow legal norms FH scores * WB anticorruption scores

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Direction of causality? Impact of values (X) on democracy (Y) Test for: Temporal order X t1 leads to Y t2… Spuriousness Control for Z (economic development) Autocorrelations Measure of Y t1 leads to Y t2

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Self-expression values & democracy

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Models: 61 nations

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Why not reverse causality? Living under democracy leads to values? Democratic institutions encourage tolerance, trust, etc? Examine historical development in specific cases e.g. post-Communist countries Singapore Germany India What of direct attitudes towards democratic ideals and practices?

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Critique? Robert W. Jackman and Ross A. Miller Before Norms: Institutions & Civic Culture U. Michigan Press 2005

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3. Jackman and Miller critique “We believe there is no systematic evidence that links cultural values either to the longer-term viability of democratic institutions or even to shorter-term transitions to democracy.” Robert W. Jackman and Ross A. Miller p.129 Claims driven by one or more enigmatic empirical decisions, without which the argument fails.

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Jackman and Miller critique What counts as ‘culture’? Post-materialist values Self-expression values? Levels of social trust? Support for democratic ideals or practices? Tendency towards ex post explanation Eg Confucianism ‘explains’ economic growth of the Asian tigers? Problems of a few influential cases driving general results

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Jackman and Miller critique “These problems taken as a whole generate a set of non-cumulative results and thereby signify an empirical research program grounded on a set of ad hoc assumptions.” Jackman and Miller p.131 More plausible to treat values as endogenous i.e. a response to the conditions within which people find themselves. Eg national wealth and degree of democracy lead towards self-reported life satisfaction Eg performance of government institutions leads towards political trust and confidence in them Political and economic circumstances > values Not values leading to economic and political outcomes