🗊Презентация Depressions and Slumps

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Depressions and Slumps A depression is a deep and long-lasting recession. A slump is a long period of low or no growth, longer than a typical recession, but less deep than a depression.
Описание слайда:
Depressions and Slumps A depression is a deep and long-lasting recession. A slump is a long period of low or no growth, longer than a typical recession, but less deep than a depression.

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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap
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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap

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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap Recall from Chapter 7 and this graph that: Output is now below the natural level of output due to an adverse shock. Because output is below the natural level of output, price levels decrease over time. So long as output remains below its natural level, the price level continues to fall, and the LM curve continues to shift down.
Описание слайда:
22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap Recall from Chapter 7 and this graph that: Output is now below the natural level of output due to an adverse shock. Because output is below the natural level of output, price levels decrease over time. So long as output remains below its natural level, the price level continues to fall, and the LM curve continues to shift down.

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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap Chapters 8 and 9 presented a more realistic version of the model. Suppose output is below the natural level of output – equivalently, the unemployment rate is higher than the natural rate of unemployment. With the unemployment rate above the natural rate, inflation falls over time. As long as output is below its natural level, inflation falls, and the LM curve continues to shift down.
Описание слайда:
22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap Chapters 8 and 9 presented a more realistic version of the model. Suppose output is below the natural level of output – equivalently, the unemployment rate is higher than the natural rate of unemployment. With the unemployment rate above the natural rate, inflation falls over time. As long as output is below its natural level, inflation falls, and the LM curve continues to shift down.

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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap The built-in mechanism that can lift economies out of recessions is this: Output below the natural level of output leads to lower inflation. Lower inflation leads in turn to higher real money growth. Higher real money growth leads to an increase in output over time. This mechanism, however, is not foolproof.
Описание слайда:
22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap The built-in mechanism that can lift economies out of recessions is this: Output below the natural level of output leads to lower inflation. Lower inflation leads in turn to higher real money growth. Higher real money growth leads to an increase in output over time. This mechanism, however, is not foolproof.

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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap Recall from Chapter 14 that: What matters for spending decisions, and thus what enters the IS relation, is the real interest rate—the interest rate in terms of goods. What matters for the demand for money, and thus enters the LM relation, is the nominal interest rate—the interest rate in terms of dollars.
Описание слайда:
22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap Recall from Chapter 14 that: What matters for spending decisions, and thus what enters the IS relation, is the real interest rate—the interest rate in terms of goods. What matters for the demand for money, and thus enters the LM relation, is the nominal interest rate—the interest rate in terms of dollars.

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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap
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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap

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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap Because output is below the natural level of output, inflation falls. The decrease in inflation now has two effects: The first effect is to increase the real money stock and shift the LM curve down, this shift tends to increase output. The second effect is for a given nominal interest rate, the decrease in expected inflation increases the real interest rate.
Описание слайда:
22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap Because output is below the natural level of output, inflation falls. The decrease in inflation now has two effects: The first effect is to increase the real money stock and shift the LM curve down, this shift tends to increase output. The second effect is for a given nominal interest rate, the decrease in expected inflation increases the real interest rate.

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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap
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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap

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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap The demand for money is as shown in Figure 22-3. As the nominal interest rate decreases, people want to hold more money. As the nominal interest rate becomes equal to zero, people want to hold an amount of money at least equal to the distance OB: This is what they need for transaction purposes.
Описание слайда:
22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap The demand for money is as shown in Figure 22-3. As the nominal interest rate decreases, people want to hold more money. As the nominal interest rate becomes equal to zero, people want to hold an amount of money at least equal to the distance OB: This is what they need for transaction purposes.

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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap Now consider the effects of an increase in the money supply: Starting from the equilibrium of Ms and i at point A, an increase in the money supply leads to a decrease in the nominal interest rate. Now consider the case where the money supply is at point B or C. In either case, the initial nominal interest rate is zero, and an increase in the money supply has no effect on the nominal interest rate at this point.
Описание слайда:
22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap Now consider the effects of an increase in the money supply: Starting from the equilibrium of Ms and i at point A, an increase in the money supply leads to a decrease in the nominal interest rate. Now consider the case where the money supply is at point B or C. In either case, the initial nominal interest rate is zero, and an increase in the money supply has no effect on the nominal interest rate at this point.

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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap The liquidity trap describes a situation in which expansionary monetary policy becomes powerless. The increase in money falls into a liquidity trap: People are willing to hold more money (more liquidity) at the same nominal interest rate. The central bank can increase “liquidity” but the additional money is willingly held by financial investors at an unchanged interest rate, namely, zero.
Описание слайда:
22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap The liquidity trap describes a situation in which expansionary monetary policy becomes powerless. The increase in money falls into a liquidity trap: People are willing to hold more money (more liquidity) at the same nominal interest rate. The central bank can increase “liquidity” but the additional money is willingly held by financial investors at an unchanged interest rate, namely, zero.

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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap
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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap

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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap
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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap

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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap
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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap

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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap
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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap

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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap The value of the real interest rate corresponding to a zero nominal interest rate depends on the rate of expected inflation. For example, if expected inflation is 10%, then:
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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap The value of the real interest rate corresponding to a zero nominal interest rate depends on the rate of expected inflation. For example, if expected inflation is 10%, then:

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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap
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22-1 Disinflation, Deflation, and the Liquidity Trap

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22-2 The Great Depression
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22-2 The Great Depression

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22-2 The Great Depression
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22-2 The Great Depression

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22-2 The Great Depression
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22-2 The Great Depression

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22-2 The Great Depression
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22-2 The Great Depression

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22-2 The Great Depression
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22-2 The Great Depression

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22-2 The Great Depression
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22-2 The Great Depression

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22-2 The Great Depression The result of low output was strong deflation and a sharp increase in the real interest rate.
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22-2 The Great Depression The result of low output was strong deflation and a sharp increase in the real interest rate.

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22-2 The Great Depression Monetary policy played an important role in the recovery. From 1933 to 1941, the nominal money stock increased by 140% and the real money stock by 100%. These increases were due to increases in the monetary base, not the money multiplier.
Описание слайда:
22-2 The Great Depression Monetary policy played an important role in the recovery. From 1933 to 1941, the nominal money stock increased by 140% and the real money stock by 100%. These increases were due to increases in the monetary base, not the money multiplier.

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22-2 The Great Depression The puzzle is why deflation ended in 1933. One proximate cause may be the set of measures taken by the Roosevelt administration such as establishing the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) of 1933. Another factor may be that while unemployment was still high, output growth was high as well. Another factor may be the perception of a “regime change” associated with the election of Roosevelt.
Описание слайда:
22-2 The Great Depression The puzzle is why deflation ended in 1933. One proximate cause may be the set of measures taken by the Roosevelt administration such as establishing the National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA) of 1933. Another factor may be that while unemployment was still high, output growth was high as well. Another factor may be the perception of a “regime change” associated with the election of Roosevelt.

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22-3 The Japanese Slump The robust growth that Japan had experienced since the end of World War II came to an end in the early 1990s. Since 1992, the economy has suffered from a long period of low growth—what is called the Japanese slump. Low growth has led to a steady increase in unemployment, and a steady decrease in the inflation rate over time.
Описание слайда:
22-3 The Japanese Slump The robust growth that Japan had experienced since the end of World War II came to an end in the early 1990s. Since 1992, the economy has suffered from a long period of low growth—what is called the Japanese slump. Low growth has led to a steady increase in unemployment, and a steady decrease in the inflation rate over time.

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22-3 The Japanese Slump
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22-3 The Japanese Slump

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22-3 The Japanese Slump
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22-3 The Japanese Slump

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22-3 The Japanese Slump
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22-3 The Japanese Slump

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22-3 The Japanese Slump There are two reasons for the increase in a stock price: A change in the fundamental value of the stock price, which depends on the expected present value of future dividends. A speculative bubble: Investors buy at a higher price simply because they expect the price to go even higher in the future.
Описание слайда:
22-3 The Japanese Slump There are two reasons for the increase in a stock price: A change in the fundamental value of the stock price, which depends on the expected present value of future dividends. A speculative bubble: Investors buy at a higher price simply because they expect the price to go even higher in the future.

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22-3 The Japanese Slump
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22-3 The Japanese Slump

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22-3 The Japanese Slump The fact that dividends remained flat while stock prices increased strongly suggests that a large bubble existed in the Nikkei. The rapid fall in stock prices had a major impact on spending—consumption was less affected, but investment collapsed.
Описание слайда:
22-3 The Japanese Slump The fact that dividends remained flat while stock prices increased strongly suggests that a large bubble existed in the Nikkei. The rapid fall in stock prices had a major impact on spending—consumption was less affected, but investment collapsed.

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22-3 The Japanese Slump
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22-3 The Japanese Slump

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22-3 The Japanese Slump Monetary policy was used, but it was used too late, and when it was used, if faced the twin problems of the liquidity trap and deflation. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) cut the nominal interest rate, but it did so slowly, and the cumulative effect of low growth was such that inflation had turned to deflation. As a result, the real interest rate was higher than the nominal interest rate.
Описание слайда:
22-3 The Japanese Slump Monetary policy was used, but it was used too late, and when it was used, if faced the twin problems of the liquidity trap and deflation. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) cut the nominal interest rate, but it did so slowly, and the cumulative effect of low growth was such that inflation had turned to deflation. As a result, the real interest rate was higher than the nominal interest rate.

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22-3 The Japanese Slump Fiscal policy was used as well. Taxes decreased at the start of the slump, and there was a steady increase in government spending throughout the decade. Fiscal policy helped, but it was not enough to increase spending and output.
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22-3 The Japanese Slump Fiscal policy was used as well. Taxes decreased at the start of the slump, and there was a steady increase in government spending throughout the decade. Fiscal policy helped, but it was not enough to increase spending and output.

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22-3 The Japanese Slump
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22-3 The Japanese Slump

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22-3 The Japanese Slump Output growth has been higher since 2003, and most economists cautiously predict that the recovery will continue. This raises the last set of questions. What are the factors behind the current recovery? There appear to be two main factors.
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22-3 The Japanese Slump Output growth has been higher since 2003, and most economists cautiously predict that the recovery will continue. This raises the last set of questions. What are the factors behind the current recovery? There appear to be two main factors.

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22-3 The Japanese Slump It is suggested that even if the nominal interest rate is already equal to zero and thus cannot be reduced further, the central bank might still be able to lower the real interest rate by affecting inflation expectations.
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22-3 The Japanese Slump It is suggested that even if the nominal interest rate is already equal to zero and thus cannot be reduced further, the central bank might still be able to lower the real interest rate by affecting inflation expectations.

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Depressions and Slumps, слайд №41
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Key Terms depression slump liquidity trap New Deal National Recovery Administration (NRA) National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA)
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Key Terms depression slump liquidity trap New Deal National Recovery Administration (NRA) National Industrial Recovery Act (NIRA)

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