🗊Презентация Russia’s Syrian “Gambit”

Russia’s Syrian “Gambit” Amb. Grigol Mgaloblishvili February 9, 2016

“Diplomacy follows the facts on the ground, not the other way around”

Today’s Agenda Assumptions Russia’s Strategic Objectives Why Syria? Why Now? Levels of Analysis – Individual, State, System Diagnostic: How we’ve got here? Way Forward

Assumptions Russia pursues multiple goals in Syria out of which Syria related objectives are not of primary importance or priority Russia wages proxy war against United States Russia and Iran for separate but entirely compatible reasons want to keep Assad in power for indefinite period of time For Russia Assad’s continued incumbency proclaims Moscow’s return to great power status Russia does not wage military campaign against DAESH -fighting DAESH is simply a “Potemkin” pretext aimed to eliminate both alternatives for Assad and DAESH Russia uses Vienna diplomatic process as time buying tactic

Russia’s Strategic Objectives

Why Syria? Why Now? International:

Why Syria? Why Now? International:

Showing that Russia is Stronger on its Allegiances ”We are stronger on our allegiances than others, I think, and this is being recognized internationally … Being a Russian diplomat, for us, if you have good relations with a country, a government, for years, for decades, then it’s not so easy to ditch those politicians and those governments because of political expediency. ” Churkin suggested that other leaders in the region would realize that when push comes to shove Russia could be trusted more than the United States to back its friends. said, he considered it a matter of national honor to stand up for Russia’s friends. “We are stronger on our allegiances than others, I think, and this is being recognized internationally,” he said. “Being a Russian diplomat, for us, if you have good relations with a country, a government, for years, for decades, then it’s not so easy to ditch those politicians and those governments because of political expediency. that other leaders in the region would realize that when push comes to shove Russia could be trusted more than the United States to back its friends.”

Why Syria? Why Now? International:

Why Syria? Why Now? International:

Why Syria? Why Now? International:

Why Syria? Why Now? International:

Why Syria? Why Now? International:

Why Syria? Why Now? International:

Levels of Analysis A good place to start, when attempting to determine why things happen in world politics, is to see whether we get the most explanatory power by looking at the reasons why people (such as leaders) do what they do (the individual level of analysis), by looking what happens within individual states (the state level), or by looking at the interactions between actors (the system level).”

“If anyone was wondering what the Kremlin thought of America at the moment, one politician has laid bare his own feelings by tweeting a picture showing the "different values" held by the two nations' leaders….. The image appeared with the message: "We have different values and allies".

State(s) and “Revisionist” Russia

International System and the Syrian Intervention

International System and the Syrian Intervention

Diagnostic Action:

Example of “Minsk Agreement” Action:

Questions?

Why it matters? Implications of Russia’s assertive policies for UAE: Broken consensus between major players on fundamental principles (UN Charter, Helsinki Final Act, Charter of Paris) Weakened Non-Proliferation Regime Devalued US security guaranties Changed pattern of a warfare

Russia’s Multifaceted Diplomacy in Syria

State(s) and the Syrian Intervention Putin’s Vertical of Power Money, Media, Local Elections Non-inclusive Political Establishment Economic liberals and old Moscow establishment marginalized Very narrow circle, with similar background and world view