🗊Презентация Terrorist scenario - South East Asia

Terrorist Scenario – South East Asia

Terrorism Al Qaeda linked bombing of Australian Embassy in Indonesia on Sep 8, 2004

JI comments… "We decided to settle accounts with Australia, one of the worst enemies of God and Islam ... "We advise all Australians in Indonesia to leave, or we will make it a grave for them, God willing Australian government has ignored previous warnings and taken part "in the war against our brothers in Iraq and supported the invading forces." Jemaah Islamiya (JI) - Southeast Asian arm of al Qaeda

Terrorist Scenario – Indonesia Regional Summary Current Threat Conditions U.S. National Security Objectives CINC Operational Objectives Blue Force Structure ASEAN Member Force Structure Coalition Force Structure Force Employment

Regional Summary Formerly Dutch East-Indies Of 17,000 islands, 6,000 are inhabited East-west expanse: 3,200 miles; equivalent distance = Ireland to Iran

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

Current President

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

Indonesia – A Country of Unrest

Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy

Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy

Indonesia – Vital to the World Economy

Indonesia Al Qaeda Connection

Threat Summary Indonesia intelligence believes GAM and JI have formed a cooperative alliance The alliance has been independently confirmed by CIA operatives in-country GAM’s objective is to gain world recognition for their 28-year independence struggle & force the Government to the bargaining table or replace the current administration with one that will negotiate JI wants to devastate the Indonesian economy prior to the 2004 general election so that the administration will topple or be unelectable

Threat Summary GAM and JI strategies may be designed to take advantage of the recent merging of Islamic political parties in Indonesia The Crescent Moon and Star Party (PBB) and the National Awakening Party (PKB) have consolidated party platforms for the 2004 election Pledge to fight rampant corruption, particularly at the local and provincial levels where Government officials and the military receive kickbacks from illicit gambling, prostitution, and drug businesses Pledge to build a “religious police force” to enforce Sharia-based laws Combined, the two parties command and unprecedented 35 to 40% of the voters which will overcome the four remaining parties

GAM/JI Course of Action Disrupt Indonesia’s oil and gas and tourist industry Targets: Foreign hotels, night clubs, and tourist attractions across the country and random kidnapping of foreigners Off-shore oil rigs in Malacca Strait Natural gas liquidization plants in Aceh Disrupt world shipping traffic in the straits Methods: Piracy Ship-to-shore missiles/artillery Mine-laying Scuttling in the channel Intelligence has determined Aceh and JI intend to simultaneously disrupt commercial shipping in all primary straits in S.E. Asia

Malacca Strait

Malacca Strait

Malacca Strait

Malacca Strait

Alternate Routes

Sunda Strait

Lombok Strait

U.S. National Objectives Assist South East Asia nation’s efforts to identify and remove terrorist threats within their borders Prevent South East Asia terrorist organizations from closing Indonesia’s sea lanes and creating a world economic crisis Protect commercial ships transiting Indonesia’s sea lanes traffic from terrorist attack thereby minimizing costly insurance increases

U.S. National Strategy Support the Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) to keep the sea lanes open ASEAN nations monitor ports and shoreline access to straits ASEAN coalition partners (including the U.S.) form picket lines at entrances to the straits Through bi-lateral agreements support Indonesian, Thailand, and Malaysia military and domestic police forces in coordinated counter-terrorism operations against GAM & JI Economic aid, law enforcement assistance, and cooperative military counter-terrorist operations

ASEAN Coalition for Sea Lane Protection Association of South East Asia Nations providing forces to maintain sea lanes Indonesia Malaysia Philippines Singapore Thailand Coalition partners providing forces to maintain sea lanes Australia Britain China Japan United States

ASEAN Coalition for Sea Lane Protection

Sea Lane Protection AOR

Sea Lane Protection – U.S. Forces

Sea Lane Protection – Coalition Forces

Sea Lane Protection – ASEAN Forces

Counter-Terrorism Operations

Counter-Terrorism Task Force AOR

U.S. Force Structure – Counter Terrorism

MC2A Employment

SOCOM Assets

SOCOM Assets

SOCOM Assets

SOCOM Assets

SOCOM Assets

Western Theater