🗊Презентация Future Strategic Issues

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Future Strategic Issues, слайд №1Future Strategic Issues, слайд №2Future Strategic Issues, слайд №3Future Strategic Issues, слайд №4Future Strategic Issues, слайд №5Future Strategic Issues, слайд №6Future Strategic Issues, слайд №7Future Strategic Issues, слайд №8Future Strategic Issues, слайд №9Future Strategic Issues, слайд №10Future Strategic Issues, слайд №11Future Strategic Issues, слайд №12Future Strategic Issues, слайд №13Future Strategic Issues, слайд №14Future Strategic Issues, слайд №15Future Strategic Issues, слайд №16Future Strategic Issues, слайд №17Future Strategic Issues, слайд №18Future Strategic Issues, слайд №19Future Strategic Issues, слайд №20Future Strategic Issues, слайд №21Future Strategic Issues, слайд №22Future Strategic Issues, слайд №23Future Strategic Issues, слайд №24Future Strategic Issues, слайд №25Future Strategic Issues, слайд №26Future Strategic Issues, слайд №27Future Strategic Issues, слайд №28Future Strategic Issues, слайд №29Future Strategic Issues, слайд №30Future Strategic Issues, слайд №31Future Strategic Issues, слайд №32Future Strategic Issues, слайд №33Future Strategic Issues, слайд №34Future Strategic Issues, слайд №35Future Strategic Issues, слайд №36Future Strategic Issues, слайд №37Future Strategic Issues, слайд №38Future Strategic Issues, слайд №39Future Strategic Issues, слайд №40Future Strategic Issues, слайд №41Future Strategic Issues, слайд №42Future Strategic Issues, слайд №43Future Strategic Issues, слайд №44Future Strategic Issues, слайд №45Future Strategic Issues, слайд №46Future Strategic Issues, слайд №47Future Strategic Issues, слайд №48
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Future Strategic Issues, слайд №1
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Utilization/Application of 2025+ Projections Inputs to Future Warfighting Concepts Development(s) (Enemy After Next & Blue) Inputs to New Procurement Decision (15+ years to Produce, 40+ years in Inventory “Heads Up” for Intel Community (“Watches and Warnings”) Inputs to DOD R&D Planning
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Utilization/Application of 2025+ Projections Inputs to Future Warfighting Concepts Development(s) (Enemy After Next & Blue) Inputs to New Procurement Decision (15+ years to Produce, 40+ years in Inventory “Heads Up” for Intel Community (“Watches and Warnings”) Inputs to DOD R&D Planning

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“Going In” Assumptions Politics can/does change “overnight” (e.g. Russia, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, etc.), Potential CAPABILITIES is the future warfare issue, not Who but WHAT Order of 10+ years required to develop/field new systems, in inventory for 30+ years, should be designed for middle of inventory period, hence 2025 time period
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“Going In” Assumptions Politics can/does change “overnight” (e.g. Russia, Iran, Iraq, Pakistan, etc.), Potential CAPABILITIES is the future warfare issue, not Who but WHAT Order of 10+ years required to develop/field new systems, in inventory for 30+ years, should be designed for middle of inventory period, hence 2025 time period

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CURRENTLY Order of 70% of Worlds Research conducted outside of U.S. (to first order, a % of GDP, U.S. produces order of 18% of worlds GDP) Order of 70% of U.S. Research now “Commercial” (as opposed to Government sponsored)
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CURRENTLY Order of 70% of Worlds Research conducted outside of U.S. (to first order, a % of GDP, U.S. produces order of 18% of worlds GDP) Order of 70% of U.S. Research now “Commercial” (as opposed to Government sponsored)

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Future Strategic Issues, слайд №7
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Hunter-Gatherer - “Nature Provided” Hunter-Gatherer - “Nature Provided” Agriculture - Controlled Nature (Plants/Animals) Industrial - Mechanized Agriculture IT/BIO/Nano - Automating Industry/Agriculture Virtual - Robotization of IT/Bio/Nano/Industry/Agriculture
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Hunter-Gatherer - “Nature Provided” Hunter-Gatherer - “Nature Provided” Agriculture - Controlled Nature (Plants/Animals) Industrial - Mechanized Agriculture IT/BIO/Nano - Automating Industry/Agriculture Virtual - Robotization of IT/Bio/Nano/Industry/Agriculture

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IT Status 10E6 improvements in Computing since ‘59, 10E8 further possible next 30 years (10E3 provides “better than Human” capabilities) 100 Million Telecommuters Worldwide NOW (expected to at least double in 15 years) India graduates three times more software engineers than the U.S., More software written in Bangalore than Southern CA IW effectively constitutes a 4th WMD
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IT Status 10E6 improvements in Computing since ‘59, 10E8 further possible next 30 years (10E3 provides “better than Human” capabilities) 100 Million Telecommuters Worldwide NOW (expected to at least double in 15 years) India graduates three times more software engineers than the U.S., More software written in Bangalore than Southern CA IW effectively constitutes a 4th WMD

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Advantages of Shallow Sea/Desert Production of Biomass (Via Seawater Irrigation) Closed CO2 Cycle (Obviates Global Warming) Food Petro-chemical feedstock Materials/clothing, etc. ENERGY (end reliance on Middle East) Terraforming, alter desertification etc. Preservation/Production of Fresh Water Rich Mineral source (Seawater) Utilization of “Wastelands” (Sahara, etc.)
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Advantages of Shallow Sea/Desert Production of Biomass (Via Seawater Irrigation) Closed CO2 Cycle (Obviates Global Warming) Food Petro-chemical feedstock Materials/clothing, etc. ENERGY (end reliance on Middle East) Terraforming, alter desertification etc. Preservation/Production of Fresh Water Rich Mineral source (Seawater) Utilization of “Wastelands” (Sahara, etc.)

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Free Form Fabrication Powder/Wire Metallurgy using robotic magnetically steered electron beams to create accreting local melts - GROW instead of CUT No fasteners, no strong backs for fasteners Nearly infinite fatigue life, excellent metallurgy (Repairable) metals at lower weight than far more expensive composites
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Free Form Fabrication Powder/Wire Metallurgy using robotic magnetically steered electron beams to create accreting local melts - GROW instead of CUT No fasteners, no strong backs for fasteners Nearly infinite fatigue life, excellent metallurgy (Repairable) metals at lower weight than far more expensive composites

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(Sample) New(er) Sensors Lidar w/ 50% efficiency via S-C optical Amplifiers, Also Fempto-second Lasers Molec./Bio Sensors Nanotags Smart Card Sensors Sensors implanted during Manuf./Servicing Nano IR (10E-6 Sensitivity) Smart Dust
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(Sample) New(er) Sensors Lidar w/ 50% efficiency via S-C optical Amplifiers, Also Fempto-second Lasers Molec./Bio Sensors Nanotags Smart Card Sensors Sensors implanted during Manuf./Servicing Nano IR (10E-6 Sensitivity) Smart Dust

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Some Sensor “Swarms” SMART DUST Cubic mm or less Combined sensors, comms and power supply Floats in air currents for up to 2 years NANOTAGS Placed on everything/everywhere Identification and Status Info Co-opted INSECTS
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Some Sensor “Swarms” SMART DUST Cubic mm or less Combined sensors, comms and power supply Floats in air currents for up to 2 years NANOTAGS Placed on everything/everywhere Identification and Status Info Co-opted INSECTS

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“Givens” (Now-to-“Soon”) Gb data transfer rates, optical comms Terraflop-to-petaflop computing Exceptional AI (from Bioinfomatics, biomimetics) Wonderous/Ubiquitous land/sea/air/space multiphysics/hyperspectral sensor swarms (military/commercial/scientific) Survival requires dispersion/size reduction and concealment Robotic/swarm technologies primarily commercial/endemic worldwide
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“Givens” (Now-to-“Soon”) Gb data transfer rates, optical comms Terraflop-to-petaflop computing Exceptional AI (from Bioinfomatics, biomimetics) Wonderous/Ubiquitous land/sea/air/space multiphysics/hyperspectral sensor swarms (military/commercial/scientific) Survival requires dispersion/size reduction and concealment Robotic/swarm technologies primarily commercial/endemic worldwide

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(Agreed Upon) Assumption, Combat in 2025 Proliferation of TBM’s, IT, Precision strike/targeting, ubiquitous micro sensors, camo/spoofing, robotics, bio/chem munitions Logistic assets highly vulnerable in or out of theater In and near theater ports/airfields possibly unusable Beam weapons increasingly prevalent
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(Agreed Upon) Assumption, Combat in 2025 Proliferation of TBM’s, IT, Precision strike/targeting, ubiquitous micro sensors, camo/spoofing, robotics, bio/chem munitions Logistic assets highly vulnerable in or out of theater In and near theater ports/airfields possibly unusable Beam weapons increasingly prevalent

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Future Strategic Issues, слайд №24
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Some Interesting “Then Year” BW Possibilities Aflatoxin - (“natural,” parts-per-billion, carcinogen) Airborne varieties of Ebola, Lassa, etc. Binary agents distributed via imported products (Vitamins, Clothing, Food) Genomicaly (individual/societal) targeted pathogens Long term/fingerprintless campaign (as opposed to “shock and awe” BW)
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Some Interesting “Then Year” BW Possibilities Aflatoxin - (“natural,” parts-per-billion, carcinogen) Airborne varieties of Ebola, Lassa, etc. Binary agents distributed via imported products (Vitamins, Clothing, Food) Genomicaly (individual/societal) targeted pathogens Long term/fingerprintless campaign (as opposed to “shock and awe” BW)

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“Slingatron” for Global Precision Strike 10Kg projectiles, up to thousands/minute Global, or less, range $20M/device Mechanical “on-the-ground” propulsion via Gyrating Spiral Guide Tube (a multiple “hula hoop” “Poor Mans” Global Precision Strike/“Takedown Weapon”
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“Slingatron” for Global Precision Strike 10Kg projectiles, up to thousands/minute Global, or less, range $20M/device Mechanical “on-the-ground” propulsion via Gyrating Spiral Guide Tube (a multiple “hula hoop” “Poor Mans” Global Precision Strike/“Takedown Weapon”

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Potential Future “Orders of Magnitude” Increases in Overall Weapon Effectiveness/Availability at Orders of Magnitude Reduced Cost(s) Bio/Chem/Molec./Nano Computing - (E6) Ubiquitous Optical Comms - (E4) Micro/Nano/Ubiquitous Sensors - (E4) BioWeaponry - (EN) Co-operative Swarms of Cheap/Small Weapons/Sensors - (E4) Volumetric Weaponry - (E4) Cyber/Artificial Life (Beyond AI) - (E?)
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Potential Future “Orders of Magnitude” Increases in Overall Weapon Effectiveness/Availability at Orders of Magnitude Reduced Cost(s) Bio/Chem/Molec./Nano Computing - (E6) Ubiquitous Optical Comms - (E4) Micro/Nano/Ubiquitous Sensors - (E4) BioWeaponry - (EN) Co-operative Swarms of Cheap/Small Weapons/Sensors - (E4) Volumetric Weaponry - (E4) Cyber/Artificial Life (Beyond AI) - (E?)

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THE INSHORE DETECTION VULNERABILITIES (+ ACTIVE) ACOUSTICS Visual, lidar, IR, bio-lum, turbidity Press. pertub. effects on water column chem., H2 bubbles, salinity, chem. releases Internal waves/surface waves--surfactant layer mods, in situ turb./wakes, atmos. mods Magnetics, coms, periscope/radar, neutron flux
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THE INSHORE DETECTION VULNERABILITIES (+ ACTIVE) ACOUSTICS Visual, lidar, IR, bio-lum, turbidity Press. pertub. effects on water column chem., H2 bubbles, salinity, chem. releases Internal waves/surface waves--surfactant layer mods, in situ turb./wakes, atmos. mods Magnetics, coms, periscope/radar, neutron flux

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An ALTERNATIVE? “A Spherical Submarine” Obviate wave drag via submergence Optimal structural configuration Optimal (Goldschmeid) Propulsion Integration Minimal wetted area/volume (large radius) Onboard Polymer plant for TDR Minimal Interference & “controls” drag (thrust vectoring)
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An ALTERNATIVE? “A Spherical Submarine” Obviate wave drag via submergence Optimal structural configuration Optimal (Goldschmeid) Propulsion Integration Minimal wetted area/volume (large radius) Onboard Polymer plant for TDR Minimal Interference & “controls” drag (thrust vectoring)

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Given the Superb/Ubiquitous World Wide Sensor Suites and Precision Strike Capabilities “Then Year” the Following WILL NOT BE SURVIVABLE APODS/SPODS Runways Surface Ships Manned (logistic/combat) Aircraft Manned (logistic/combat) Ground Vehicles
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Given the Superb/Ubiquitous World Wide Sensor Suites and Precision Strike Capabilities “Then Year” the Following WILL NOT BE SURVIVABLE APODS/SPODS Runways Surface Ships Manned (logistic/combat) Aircraft Manned (logistic/combat) Ground Vehicles

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“Circa 2025” Machines as creative/“smart” as humans “Robotics” the “norm” Zeroth order “warstopper” - Binary bio into nation’s agric./food distrib. system (every home/fox hole) Next level of concern: Ubiquitous/Cheap micro-to-nano EVERYTHING (sensors, munitions, weapons swarms/hordes) Battlefield attrition/CNN syndrome forces U.S. Army to look/act like SOCOM
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“Circa 2025” Machines as creative/“smart” as humans “Robotics” the “norm” Zeroth order “warstopper” - Binary bio into nation’s agric./food distrib. system (every home/fox hole) Next level of concern: Ubiquitous/Cheap micro-to-nano EVERYTHING (sensors, munitions, weapons swarms/hordes) Battlefield attrition/CNN syndrome forces U.S. Army to look/act like SOCOM

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(Suggested) Major U.S. Future (2025) Warfare Issues CONUS Defense (Requirement(s) for, potential approaches) Logistics Defense/Protection (in/out of theater) Survivability/Effectiveness of U.S. Forces on/near the “Killing Ground” in an era of affordable ubiquitous multiphysics hyperspectral sensors, precision strike, volumetric weaponry, “swarms” and hardened munitions
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(Suggested) Major U.S. Future (2025) Warfare Issues CONUS Defense (Requirement(s) for, potential approaches) Logistics Defense/Protection (in/out of theater) Survivability/Effectiveness of U.S. Forces on/near the “Killing Ground” in an era of affordable ubiquitous multiphysics hyperspectral sensors, precision strike, volumetric weaponry, “swarms” and hardened munitions

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“Non-explosive Warfare” (psywar, biowar IT/net war, “anti-operability war,” Beam weaponry including RF, Spoofing/Cammo “Non-explosive Warfare” (psywar, biowar IT/net war, “anti-operability war,” Beam weaponry including RF, Spoofing/Cammo Robotic Warfare “in the large”/better than human AI/“Cyber life” Alternative Power Projection Approaches (e.g. Deep Water depth/death sphere, blast wave accelerator, etc.)
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“Non-explosive Warfare” (psywar, biowar IT/net war, “anti-operability war,” Beam weaponry including RF, Spoofing/Cammo “Non-explosive Warfare” (psywar, biowar IT/net war, “anti-operability war,” Beam weaponry including RF, Spoofing/Cammo Robotic Warfare “in the large”/better than human AI/“Cyber life” Alternative Power Projection Approaches (e.g. Deep Water depth/death sphere, blast wave accelerator, etc.)

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Future “Power Projection”? Humans “hold” instead of “take” ground (go in after “Sanitization”) Sanitization via: IW/Psywar Global Reach “Guns” (BWA/Slingatron) Deep water/large loadout Subs w/“swimins” “Robotic Everything” w/Volumetric weaponry non-explosive warfare
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Future “Power Projection”? Humans “hold” instead of “take” ground (go in after “Sanitization”) Sanitization via: IW/Psywar Global Reach “Guns” (BWA/Slingatron) Deep water/large loadout Subs w/“swimins” “Robotic Everything” w/Volumetric weaponry non-explosive warfare

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Changing Nature of Warfare
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Changing Nature of Warfare

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RMA Planning “Shortfalls” (NPS) “Indications of the innovative paths adversaries might take or how they might adapt technologies from the civilian world” (Being worked in the “Technical War Games”) “The path from todays systems and capabilities to those hypothesized for the future (2020+)”
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RMA Planning “Shortfalls” (NPS) “Indications of the innovative paths adversaries might take or how they might adapt technologies from the civilian world” (Being worked in the “Technical War Games”) “The path from todays systems and capabilities to those hypothesized for the future (2020+)”

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What is needed is a “Then Year” (~2030) Serious/Holistic Vision of Warfare Changes Resulting from the On-going IT/Bio/Nano/Virtual Technological Revolutions Such does not exist, “bumper sticker” attempts extant. All are agreed, warfare will become increasingly robotic and probably more affordable, swarms of sensors/shooters are a given. A longer term “Vision” of these changes would enable “mapping” from the present, NOT AT ALL CLEAR HOW TO “Get There From Here” as do not know where “there” is!
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What is needed is a “Then Year” (~2030) Serious/Holistic Vision of Warfare Changes Resulting from the On-going IT/Bio/Nano/Virtual Technological Revolutions Such does not exist, “bumper sticker” attempts extant. All are agreed, warfare will become increasingly robotic and probably more affordable, swarms of sensors/shooters are a given. A longer term “Vision” of these changes would enable “mapping” from the present, NOT AT ALL CLEAR HOW TO “Get There From Here” as do not know where “there” is!

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