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SYSTEM ANALYSIS AND DECISION MAKING HYPOTHETICAL POSSIBILITIES

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Human beings engage in a kind of thinking that requires consideration of hypothetical possibilities. Hypothetical thinking is a uniquely human facility that is a distinguishing characteristic of our intelligence.

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The importance of hypothetical thinking is associated with dual processes in thinking and reasoning. There are distinct cognitive mechanism sunder lying implicit and explicit thinking

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The implicit system provides automatic input to human cognition in the form of pragmatic processes whose tendency is to contextualise the current environment in the light of background beliefs and knowledge.

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The explicit system is linked to language and reflective consciousness, and providing the basis for reasoning. Explicit thinking requires working memory and is therefore sequential and sharply limited in processing capacity compared with the implicit system. Effective functioning of the explicit system is also linked to measures of general intelligence

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THE THREE PRINCIPLES OF HYPOTHETICAL THINKING

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The explicit system evaluates the hypothesis against evidence and accepts it if it satisfies (is consistent with the evidence). Only when a falsifying case is encountered is the evaluation unsatisfying, and the model (hypothesis) abandoned and a new one generated. Both relevance and satisficing principles come into play here, in the model-generating and model-evaluation stages, respectively.

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But people represent only one relevant possible world at a time as a mental model. If they are making a decision, they may model two or more possible worlds sequentially, but not simultaneously.

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People tend to focus quickly on one of these possibilities and to draw out only some of its consequences, and they give it up, or switch attention from it, only if they discover a negative consequence. Decision making does not involve any systematic attempt at optimising choice, as people often focus on the most immediately plausible, attractive or relevant option.

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The Relevance Principle

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The models people consider are preconsciously cued by the implicit system in accordance with the relevance principle. This pragmatic process reflects the interplay of three factors, as illustrated in Figure

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The syllogisms were classified a priori into three types: Necessary. The conclusion must be true if the premises are true. These are normally termed valid syllogisms. Possible. The conclusion could be true if the premises are true. Impossible. The conclusion cannot be true if the premises are true.

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How would the hypothetical thinking model account for the moderate competence to perform the modus tollens inference?

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All x are z. All y are z. Therefore, some x are y. ____________________ Some x are y. All y are z. Therefore, some x are z. _____________________ All x are y. Some y are z. Therefore, some x are z _____________________ Incorrect or correct?