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Слайды и текст этой презентации

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Risk Management PROJECT MANAGEMENT Developed by Elizaveta Markovskaya, associate professor, Phd (Economics)

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Key Topics What risk is Types of Risks The process of Risk Management Risk review

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What Risk is The Project Management Institute defines project risk as: A risk is a possible future event that may affect your project either positively or negatively.

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What Risk is Some risk managers define risk as the possibility that a future occurrence may cause harm or losses, while noting that risk also may provide possible opportunities.

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Risk Management Companies need risk management to analyze possible risks in order to balance potential gains against potential losses and avoid expensive mistakes. Risk management is best used as a preventive measure rather than as a reactive measure.

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Risk Management The task of the risk manager is to predict, and enact measures to control or prevent, losses within a company. The risk-management process involves identifying exposures to potential losses, measuring these exposures, and deciding how to protect the company from harm given the nature of the risks and the company's goals and resources. While companies face a host of different risks, some are more important than others. Risk managers determine their importance and ability to be affected while identifying and measuring exposures.

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Risk classification Depending on the nature of appearance: political and economical; Depending on the character of effects: dynamic (pure) and (static) speculative; Depending on the sphere: industrial, commercial, financial, insurance, trade ; Other: country, currency, tax, credit, portfolio, organizational… Another classification: external risk (political, ecological, currency, macroeconomic) and internal (project risk)

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Risk classification Depending on the influence on the management’s cost: single, portfolio; Depending on the possibility of the diversification: diversified, non-diversified; Depending on the influence on the price: essential, inessential; Depending on the possibility of the insurance: insured, non-insured; Depending on the possibility to manage them: uncontrollable and controllable.

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Risk classification

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Risk management process

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Risk management process

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Risk management process

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Risk management process Identify: This is the process to discover the project risks that may be present. What risks form an opportunity or threat to the project? Prioritize: Sorting the risks in order of importance. This enables the project team to deal with the largest risks first Analyze: an understanding of risks is a precondition for taking effective measures. Analysis looks at the characteristics of individual risks and the relationship that exist between risks. Analysis can be qualitative or quantitative Responses: a perfect analysis is beautiful, but it only adds value if it results in workable responses that change a project’s risk profile.

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Risk management process

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Risk management process 1. Setting the goals of the risk management. 2. Risks identification. 3. Evaluation and analysis. 4. Risk elimination. 5. Risk monitoring.

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Risk Description: How to describe Risk. Main characteristics. 1. Sphere where the risks appeared. 2. Type of the risks. 3. Interested parts and its expectations. 4. Quantitative risk characteristics. 5. Risk management, control. 6. Recommendations. 7. Strategic changes.

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Risk review How to perform a risk review First, a risk review is a project team effort. While you may be a very good team/project leader, it is always better to have three or four heads working together. Here is a simple process to follow: 1. Generate a list of risks/problems that can impact your project 2. Assign a probability and impact rating 3. Prioritize the risks with those most serious at the beginning of your list 4. Develop strategies to minimize or eliminate the risks

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Risk review.Example. Lets assume that, as a team, our project is to change-out a plant process control system. As a team, and by brainstorming, we have generated the following potential problems: (Note that these are not yet prioritized)

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Risk review.Example. We may have a shortage of qualified technicians—unable to start-up the new system Vendor may be late in delivering the system The plant manager may change the plant “outage” date, thereby shifting our implementation schedule Our internal engineering resources are working on multiple projects and may not be available when needed The reorganization at corporate headquarters may affect our project funding

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Risk review.Probability/Impact Note that we have a combination of internal and external problems to deal with. With our list now generated, it is necessary to assign probabilities and impacts. In this case we want to determine the probability that the event may occur (High, Medium or Low); and, if so, the impact (High, Medium or Low). We have taken the above list and put into a table format as follows: (Note that these have now been prioritized based on risk probabilities/impacts)

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Risk review.Probability/Impact

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Risk review. Last step – developing strategy.

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Risk review. Last step – developing mitigation strategy.

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Risk review.Qualitative and quantitative review Note that Risk No. 5 was eliminated because it was a Low-Low. There is no point in developing strategies for risks that have a low probability of occurring and a low impact even if they do. We have chosen to accept this risk. Always develop more than one strategy for each risk. Also, this type of risk review is a qualitative review because we have not developed a cost impact for each risk. A quantitative risk review would require the project team to have a strong grasp of cost impacts and also takes much longer to conduct.

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Risk review. When we should use it?

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Risk review. How could we use the results?

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Quantitative Risk Evaluation 1) the expected value (or expectation, mathematical expectation, EV 2) the standard deviation (represented by the Greek letter sigma, σ)